Predictions and 3 keys to the No. 13 Indiana-Michigan game

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – National reports like Post X by CBS Sports reporter Brandon Marcello on Wednesday suggested that Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke could start in Saturday’s game against Michigan State.

Whether that’s true or not, Indiana has been an efficient passing team this season, regardless of who the quarterback was. With the No. 13 Hoosiers heading into Saturday’s game at 3:30 p.m. ET at Spartan Stadium, this isn’t good news for the host Spartans.

Michigan has had a wide disparity in form heading into the 2024 season, reflecting both a difficult schedule – Michigan has already played Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa and Michigan – and the Spartans’ inconsistent play.

One thing that has remained constant is that when the Spartans face a good quarterback, they tend to struggle, even in some wins.

In four losses, opposing quarterbacks have shot at least 61.8% against the Spartans. Even after Michigan State won 27-24, Billy Edwards Jr. from Maryland, he completed 76.5% of his passes.

Indiana is the third most efficient passing team in the country. Hoosiers are only ahead of Army and Navy in this regard, and the service academies rarely throw the ball compared to Indiana. The Midshipmen’s (56) and Black Knights’ (95) total attempts do not equal Indiana’s total attempts (221).

Regardless of whether Rourke or Tayven Jackson plays on Saturday, Indiana will have a big advantage. Michigan must find a way to chip away at the Hoosiers, something no team has ever done.

Here are three more keys and predictions for the Michigan State game:

1. Get Michigan State off the field

Thanks to a two-pronged running attack led by Kay’ron Adams (459 yards) and Nate Carter (412 yards), not to mention the running ability of quarterback Aidan Chiles (172 yards), the Spartans are able to keep the ball. Michigan State ranks second in the Big Ten and 21st nationally in time of possession at 31:48 per game.

Indiana just needs to play to its strengths to limit the Spartans’ ball control. The Hoosiers rank fourth in the Big Ten and 27th nationally in third-down defense. Opponents only convert 33% of their third down conversions against the Hoosiers. This trend will need to continue, keeping the Spartans from playing away from Indiana’s offense.

2. Get Zach Horton involved in the passing attack

Indiana tight end Zach Horton has been an integral part of Indiana’s offensive attack. His blocking is considered a key reason for Indiana’s rapid success.

He has been a part of the passing attack – Horton has 15 catches for 124 yards and two TD catches – but he only broke the four-catch mark twice in the game.

We’ve already learned that Indiana will jump and weave, changing its tendencies from game to game. Last week, Indiana abandoned its current approach to individual committees and handed the burden to Judge Ellison.

Perhaps Horton getting more goals is the next evolution? There is a precedent. In 2023 at James Madison Stadium, Horton made 17 of his 27 catches in the final five games of the season.

3. Don’t be fooled by the crowd

Indiana has only played two road games, and neither of them were a bundle of fan-fueled passion.

The Rose Bowl is so vast that it eats up much of UCLA’s home-field advantage – and Indiana had a sizable number of fans there anyway. The opposite dynamic played out during an October trip to Northwestern’s small temporary stadium on Lake Michigan. Once again, Indiana fans showed their support in Evanston.

Spartan Stadium will be different. There will likely be plenty of Indiana fans in East Lansing, but the percentage of fans cheering for the Hoosiers will be much higher compared to previous road games in a stadium that seats 75,005.

It’s going to be loud, so Indiana’s players will have to deal with that dynamic for the first time. The team practiced with simulated noise, but it wasn’t the same as on game day.

This will be a good dress rehearsal before the Hoosiers travel to Ohio State on November 23.

Forecast

My gut tells me this game will be tighter than Indiana’s recent games.

It’s an away game – the Hoosiers’ first time this season in a true road atmosphere – and it comes with its usual challenges. Michigan is battle-tested on its schedule in a way Indiana wasn’t.

Indiana, on the other hand, met every challenge in 2024. And while Michigan faced tough competition against Big Ten opponents, it wasn’t very competitive against either the Buckeyes or Ducks. Even in a 32-20 win over Iowa, Michigan had to settle for six field goals. Doing it again likely won’t impact Indiana’s offense.

We’ll take the Hoosiers to a 28-13 win. Indiana at 9-0? Something none of us have ever experienced before.