Commanders vs. Preview Buccaneers Wild Card

The Washington Commanders have quickly become one of the coolest teams in the NFL this season. Rookie point guard Jayden Daniels was a revelation, and his high-octane offense led to the team’s most wins since 1991.

However, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may be one of the few teams able to match the Commanders’ fun factor this season. With their own high-flying offense led by Baker Mayfield, the chaotic Bucs have been a rollercoaster this season.

Which Bucs team will appear in this matchup? Will the Commanders’ dream season continue in the extended postseason? Let’s break it down.

Commander offense: Washington’s offense thrives on their running game. Led by Daniels’ 891 rushing yards and six touchdowns and Brian Robinson’s 799 yards and eight touchdowns, they want to ram it down your throat. Change of pace on defense Austin Ekeler gives defenders an additional weapon in the passing game as well.

The passing game was good, but not great; they rank middle of the pack in passing yards and just inside the top 10 in passing touchdowns. Wide receiver Terry McLaurin has been tremendous, and point guard Zach Ertz continues to defy the rules of aging by taking on the role of a reliable mid-range passer and red zone threat. But beyond those two, there’s a group of players like Olamide Zaccheaus and Noah Brown that you wouldn’t particularly want to count on in a heartbeat.

However, Daniels is the engine that keeps this team running; when he is on the field, moving and making plays, they are extremely difficult to beat.

Commander Defense: Commanders win games by scoring goals, and the defense’s job this season is to provide enough stops to give the offense a chance to win.

They are firmly in the middle of the pack in terms of points allowed (18th in points allowed) and yards allowed (13th in yards allowed) (13th in yards allowed) and don’t generate many turnovers (they have just seven interceptions per year). They are particularly poor against the run, ranking 30th in rushing yards, likely due to one of the highest rushing rates in all of football. This blitz rate also explains why they rank third in passing yards allowed while giving up 25 passing touchdowns; the best response to an attack is quick, short passes that usually do not generate many important plays.

Washington’s defense isn’t bad, but it’s not particularly good either. Good enough to get the job done most of the time.

Path to victory: Launch your attack quickly; Daniels needs to shave off and the offense needs to score because it doesn’t seem likely that the defense will slow down Tampa Bay that much. If the offense is effective and the defense makes a few stops, that might be enough.

Privateer crime: Tampa Bay is one of the most chaotic teams in all of football, and nowhere is that more evident than their offense. They have a high-octane, fast-paced style that scores points in batches, ranking third in total yards and fourth in points on the year. Baker Mayfield was a maniacal master of this chaotic symphony, throwing for 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns on the year.

The wide receiver is deep and solid; Mike Evans had another 1,000-yard season, and Jalen McMillan proved to be a lethal threat. The loss of Chris Godwin in Week 7 made things a bit worse, but Mayfield responded by spreading the ball around to various sources; this team shares the love and it shows in the statistics.

Likewise, the running game was excellent; Bucky Irving and Rachaad White combined for over 1,700 yards and 11 touchdowns, while Mayfield ran for 378 yards and three more scores.

So where does chaos occur? That would be the 16 interceptions Mayfield has thrown this season; more often when he has the ball something will happen. Will this be a good thing or a bad thing? Who can say? Certainly not him, so how can I expect to predict such things?

Corsair Defense: Speaking of chaos, we have Tampa’s defense. They are the most mediocre defense of any average, ranking 16th in points allowed and 18th in yards allowed on the year. Run defense is absolutely their strength; they rank fourth in rushing yards allowed and 14th in rushing touchdowns allowed on the season.

It’s a good thing the run defense is solid, because the pass defense is anything but solid, ranking 29th in yards allowed and scoring 27 passing touchdowns on the year. They only have seven steals, so they don’t force turnovers either.

The only thing they do well is catching up to the passer. It’s an aggressive defense that ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing offense thanks to the third-highest blitz percentage in the league. They’re coming for you and you better be ready for it. Of course, this blitz rate is probably also why they rank so high on the list in yards after a catch (28th); With so many people rushing at the quarterback, there is plenty of room to run freely once the pass is completed.

In other words, buckle up and wait for the shooting.

Path to victory: Try to master the game led by commanders. Avoid turning the ball over and hope a good Baker shows up this week as opposed to the 250 yard, 1 touchdown, 2 pick Baker who likes to come in and play sometimes. Turn it into a shootout and let your attack simmer.

Verdict: This may be the hardest matchup to predict in the postseason due to the instability of both teams. Every possible outcome is on the table and has a reasonable chance of occurring. I’m expecting a ton of points, but ultimately the fact that this isn’t a particularly minor game for Washington gives Tampa Bay a slight edge in what’s considered the funniest game of the weekend.