Final distribution and performance forecasts

Update (10 a.m. ET): Tonight’s game between the Hawks and Rockets has been postponed to a later date due to severe weather conditions in the Atlanta area. A few minutes ago, the Hawks released a statement regarding the game:

“The National Basketball Association game between the Houston Rockets and Atlanta Hawks scheduled for this afternoon at State Farm Arena has been postponed. The decision was made after consultation with local officials and prioritized the safety of players, fans and staff due to the severe weather and hazardous ice conditions in the Atlanta area. The rescheduled game date will be announced at a later time.

The Hawks completed a six-game road trip against the Suns on Thursday and play a home game at State Farm Arena for the first time since December 2024. Their opponent today is the Houston Rockets, who are currently in 2nd place in the Western Conference. The Rockets are one of the weakest teams in the league, and the Hawks will once again be without Jalen Johnson. This is Johnson’s fourth consecutive missed game and his fifth absence in the last six games.

Our Rohan Raman previewed today’s game in detail:

“Entering today’s game, the Hawks are 6th in the NBA in PPG, 15th in FG%, 19th in 3PA, 18th in 3P%, 5th in FTA, 23rd in turnovers, and 9th in turnovers. in terms of rebounds. Glass cleaningAtlanta ranks 14th in points per 100 possessions, 16th in successful field goal percentage, 19th in turnover percentage, 9th in offensive rebound percentage and 10th in free throw rate.

The Hawks currently rank 28th in PPG allowed, 25th in field goal percentage allowed, 29th in three-point shooting percentage allowed and 30th in three-point shooting percentage allowed. According to Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta ranks 20th in points allowed per 100 possessions and 28th in effective field goal percentage.

Houston doesn’t shoot the ball well, but tends to close the gap with second-chance points on offense. The Rockets rank 12th in points per game, 28th in FG%, 19th in 3PA, 29th in 3P%, 7th in FTA, 23rd in turnovers and 1st in rebounds. For Glass cleaningHouston ranks 10th in points per 100 possessions, 28th in effective field goal percentage, 5th in turnover percentage, 1st in offensive rebounding percentage and 16th in free throw rate.

Their strength lies in defense. The Rockets rank 3rd in field goal percentage allowed, 3rd in field goal percentage allowed, 2nd in three-point percentage allowed and 11th in three-point shooting percentage allowed. Per Cleaning the Glass, Houston ranks No. 3 in points per 100 possessions and No. 3 in effective field goal percentage.

Given how good Houston is at perimeter defense, this will be a very difficult matchup for a Hawks team that doesn’t shoot the ball particularly well anyway. The Rockets communicate well on defense and should be able to match a Hawks team that relies heavily on Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter to shoot frequently from beyond the arc.

An interesting matchup to watch in this game is Trae Young vs. Amen Thompson. Thompson’s combination of 6’1″ height, blazing speed and defensive instincts is elite and he uses it to great effect when attacking opponents’ ball handlers. He’s not a great shooter, but he’s a good finisher at the rim and can make a huge impact when he’s on the court.

It will also be interesting to see how Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu fare against Alperen Sengun. The Rockets center is excellent offensively, but his rim protection leaves much to be desired. This could be an area for Capela/Okongwu to exploit.

Without Jalen Johnson, the Hawks will have to turn to David Roddy at some points in the game. Roddy went 3/3 from deep and scored 11 points. If he can provide Atlanta with a similar level of offense while also holding their own on defense, it will be a huge challenge to their chances of surviving this matchup.

DeAndre Hunter has been one of Atlanta’s more consistent bench members throughout the season, but in the loss against the Suns, he scored 12 points while going 3-9 from the field. Getting back into shape will be key against the Rockets, who may be playing without one or both of Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr on the perimeter.

From an Atlanta defensive perspective, Fred VanVleet has done a good job of taking care of the ball over the last few appearances. However, the Rockets point guard has never faced a player like Dyson Daniels before. Daniels routinely forces ball handlers to make poor decisions and turnovers. He’ll need to get some to keep VanVleet at bay and give Atlanta the advantage in this game.

According to Fanduel SportsbookThe Rockets are six-point favorites tonight with an overall win of 232.5.

It’s no secret that the Hawks aren’t playing well without Johnson, and the Rockets pose a lot of challenges. They have multiple defenders who can put pressure on Trae Young and make his life difficult, and having Johnson as the second ball-handler would be huge in this matchup. The Rockets are not an elite offensive team when it comes to shooting, but Johnson’s absence against an elite rebounding team will also be an issue. The Hawks shot the ball well against Phoenix, but I see them having a hard time getting there tonight, with the Rockets getting the win against the Hawks.

Final score: Rockets 117, Hawks 112

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