Will people leave Florida after devastating hurricanes? History suggests not

ORLANDO, FL. – The news spread across Treasure Island, Florida, almost like a third storm: the mayor planned to leave the barrier island a month later Hurricane Helene flooded tens of thousands of homes along the Gulf Coast and two weeks later Hurricane Milton also devastated the state.

Mayor Tyler Payne’s home was flooded and damaged beyond repair, he explained in a message to Treasure Island residents, and he and his husband couldn’t afford to rebuild it. He also stepped down as mayor.

“While it is with a heavy heart that I am making this decision as we recover from Hurricanes Helene and Milton, it is the best decision for me and my family,” Payne, who has served in the role for more than three years and was his fourth, said the generation-generation Treasure Island resident on Monday .

Up and down Florida the storm-battered coast of the Gulf of Mexicoresidents make the same calculations about whether they should stay or leave. Can they afford to rebuild? What will the insurance cover? People considering moving to Florida wonder if it’s worth the risk of coming to Florida hurricane-prone state.

These existential questions about Florida’s desirability are regularly asked after intense hurricane seasons, such as in 2004, when four hurricanes tore through the Sunshine State.

If he moves to the state, offer any response hurricanes have served little as a deterrent. In the twenty years since Charley, Frances, Jeanne and Ivan devastated the state, Florida’s population has increased by a third, to 23 million. Last year in Florida added over 365,000 inhabitantssecond only to Texas among states.

On the other hand, there are signs of cooling in Florida’s white-hot real estate market. Sales of single-family homes dropped 12% in September compared to the same period last year. But interest rates, rising home prices and skyrocketing insurance costs have likely played a bigger role than recent hurricanes.

“Florida is recovering much faster than you think,” said Brad O’Connor, chief economist at Florida Realtors.

What happens after a storm?

Studies of hurricanes along the Gulf Coast have shown that any outbound migration is usually short-lived, and if people do leave, it is usually a short distance move, such as from a barrier island to the mainland. Older people with greater financial resources are more likely to return to devastated communities.

In the housing market, there may be an initial supply shock as homeowners wait for reimbursements from insurance companies for renovating or selling their homes.

However, in the three years after the hurricane, home prices in hurricane-affected areas of Florida are on average 5% higher than in other parts of the state due to less supply. according to the study the impact of hurricanes on the Florida housing market in 2000–2016. New home owners tend to be wealthier than previous ones because wealthier buyers can absorb price increases.

Other factors that determine how quickly communities recover include homeowners insurance, how quickly insurance reimbursements are reimbursed, and whether there are enough construction workers. Due to more stringent building regulations O’Connor said that, implemented several years after Hurricane Andrew devastated South Florida in 1992, newer homes withstand hurricanes better than older ones.

“If a property is damaged and uninsured and the homeowner says, ‘I don’t want to deal with this,’ there will always be people willing to take the property because it’s valuable land,” he said. “People are building new houses according to the new regulations, and the effects of hurricanes are less.”

Short-term and long-term

Recent storms provide examples of what happens to communities, both in the short and long term.

In Lee County, where Fort Myers is located, Hurricane Ian landed two years ago in one of the fastest-growing parts of the United States. Population growth later slowed to 1.5% from 4.4% before the storm. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of households dropped from about 340,000 to about 326,000.

In 2019, three-quarters of all United Van Lines truck moves were in Lee County and one-quarter were outbound, but that dropped to two-thirds inbound and one-third outbound in 2023-2024 – The Associated Press reported.

The percentage of people in their late 20s, 30s and early 40s has increased, as has the percentage of men without a spouse or partner, reflecting the influx of construction and renovation workers. The share of the white population has declined, while it has increased for the Latino community. According to the Census Bureau, the percentage of utility and transportation workers in the county has increased.

Bay County, Florida Panhandle, where Michael landed first Category 5 hurricane in the continental United States over a quarter century in 2018, provides a portrait of long-term trends. Four years later, Bay County had rebuilt its pre-hurricane population, which dropped by almost 6% in the year after the hurricane.

Since Michael, the county has become more diverse, wealthier and older, with the median age increasing from 39.6 to 41.4 and more people identifying as multiracial or Latino. The percentage of households earning $200,000 or more increased from 4.3% before the hurricane to 8.3% in 2022, meaning some of the least affluent residents could not afford to rebuild or return.

Mayor of Treasure Island

In his message to voters, Payne said he will continue to stay in touch with the Treasure Island community as his parents plan to rebuild on the barrier island, one of a string of coastal towns on the Gulf of Mexico west of St. Petersburg known for their motels. restaurants and bars along the street. Payne, a lawyer who is also an executive at his family’s eyeglass lens company, said in his message that his decision to move was “difficult.”

“I completely empathize with the difficult decisions that so many of our residents are facing,” Payne said.

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Associated Press reporter Curt Anderson in Belleair Beach, Florida, contributed to this report.

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Follow Mike Schneider on social media platform X: @MikeSchneiderAP.