Pennsylvania voters are evenly split on Harris, Trump polling shows

Just days before Tuesday’s Election Day, V.P Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump they are neck and neck in Pennsylvania, one of several key swing states they can identify winner, according to a new, exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk poll.

Harris and Trump each have 49% of the vote, with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, according to the statewide poll of 500 likely voters conducted Oct. 27-30.

A poll of 300 likely voters in Erie County, which could indicate trends in the state, also returned the result 48% to 48%. Northampton County, another Pennsylvania state leader, leaned slightly toward Trump, with 50% saying they supported him, and Harris at 48%. County polling results are within a margin of error of 5.65 percentage points.

David Paleologos, director of the University of Suffolk Center for Policy Research, said together that county and statewide data show that in Pennsylvania “it’s really a mistake.”

“All results are within the margin of error… it’s basically a statistical tie,” Paleologos said.

Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes, the most of any swing state. Both candidates campaigned in the state this week. Trump organized a rally in Allentown on Tuesday, while Harris visited Harrisburg on Wednesday.

Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020 by a razor-thin margin of one percentage point. He flipped both Erie and Northampton County, which Trump won in 2016.

Condition is part of the “blue wall”, a group of states that voted blue in the last federal election until Trump won three of them – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – in 2016.

Undecided voters and third parties

A majority of Pennsylvania voters have already decided who to support, but with the race so close, the small percentage of undecided voters could influence election results in the state – and across the country.

Third party candidates could do the same. In Pennsylvania, there are two options on the ballot besides Trump and Harris – Green Party candidate Jill Stein and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver. Each had 1% or less support in the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll.

But if Pennsylvania’s election is as close as polls suggest, a candidate with 0.5% support could tip the scales in favor of Harris or Trump, Paleologos said.

Jason Danner, 38, is one of the few voters still undecided in Pennsylvania.

While Danner said he believes Trump was a good president, he has concerns that Trump uses “divisive” and “undemocratic” rhetoric and “appears to have no respect for the Constitution.” On the other hand, he is worried that Harris will continue Biden’s policies.

A registered Democrat, when Danner finally steps into the voting booth, he said he will “most likely” vote for Harris. But he will do it reluctantly.

“I’ve been voting all my life,” he said. “This is almost the first election where I don’t even want to vote because I’ve become apathetic to our political climate.”

Sean Doyle said he plans to vote but will leave the presidential field blank. After voting for Biden in the last election campaign, Doyle said he couldn’t accept that Harris wasn’t selected in the first round.

“We needed an honest primary school and that was taken away from us,” he said. “I cannot bear to vote for a candidate whose party thinks it is okay to disrespect voters in this way.”

Doyle, a veteran who served for 12 years, said his politics are most aligned with the Libertarian Party, but he believes voting for a third party would be a waste of his ballot. In 2020, he decided at the last minute not to support Trump after he “remembered all the things he said negatively about veterans.”

Although he supports Democratic economic policies, he feels increasingly “disillusioned” with the party.

“It’s becoming less and less common for me to come across anything that actually helps me,” he said.

Gender difference

Nationally, Harris leads by far among women, and Trump has a similar lead among men.

In Pennsylvania, that gender gap is “very stark,” Paleologos said.

Trump has a 20-point lead among men in Pennsylvania, 57% to 37%, while Harris has an 18% lead among women over Trump, 57% to 39%. That compares with Trump’s 16-point lead among men nationally and Harris’s 17-point lead among women.

“Where the rubber hits the road is the couple’s house,” Paleologos said. “It’s married women and married men who are struggling with these choices because they’re talking about them under their roofs.”

Kathleen Keshgegian, 42, said women’s rights are central to why she already voted for Harris. “I have two daughters and this is my biggest problem,” she said.

“I had an abortion, and if I hadn’t had that option, I think my life would have been completely different and it probably wouldn’t have been a good option,” said Keshgegian, a mother of three children ages 11, 8 and 6, who lives in Oreland, a suburb of Philadelphia.

Although Keshgegian voted for President Biden in 2020 because she believed he was the best choice, “she would prefer someone younger, more oriented towards changing the government, rather than the same old white men,” she said. She feels more connected to Harris, who is relatable, more compassionate and less divisive.

Keshgegian said Trump might be able to lower prices and she understands people may vote for him for that reason. But he can’t stand what he sees as his other traits. “He’s rude, he’s sexist. I’m pretty sure he’s a criminal,” she said.

“I’d rather have less money in my pocket than have someone with his ideals.”

This bill carries different weight to others.

Luanne McDonald of Lancaster, Pennsylvania, said she has “mixed emotions” about the election and sees Trump and Harris as “terrible” candidates. McDonald, a self-described independent, disagrees with Trump’s positions on abortion and women’s rights, but believes Harris is “weak and maniacal.”

She voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and plans to do so again on November 5. When it comes to the issues that are most important to her – the economy and law and order – McDonald said she feels Trump will do a better job.

“I could buy Babka at Whole Foods when he was president, but now I can’t afford it,” said McDonald, a former nurse, referring to the traditional Jewish sweet bread. “I have never felt poor until now.”

Not surprisingly, more than 70% of people who viewed current economic conditions as poor said they supported Trump. Harris outperformed Trump among those who thought the economy was in good, fair or excellent shape.

Eric Huhn, 62, plans to vote for Republicans, starting with Trump until the end of the term.

The owner of a home painting and wallpapering business in Chalfont, about 50 miles north of Philadelphia, Huhn said economic issues are his top priority. “Being self-employed, nothing affects me more than what the government does to the economy,” he said.

He believes the Republican platform can deliver results.

Cheaper energy “will help lower the cost of goods, less regulation will also help spur business growth,” he said. “I like Republicans for their more conservative views on spending and limited government.”

Trevor Borchelt of Berks County, Pennsylvania, describes himself as a Reagan-era Republican who believes in fiscal conservatism and moral responsibility. But he said the party had lost sight of ideals under Trump and planned to vote for Harris on Election Day, citing “democracy” as his biggest concern.

“I don’t agree with some of Trump’s policies,” said Borchelt, 44, drawing attention to the former president’s tax and pro-production policies. “But if you don’t cross the threshold of accepting the election results, you won’t be able to participate in democratic elections.”

Trump faces multiple criminal trials for trying to overturn the 2020 election results, and he did he didn’t want to say he would agree 2024 race result

Borchelt has never voted for Trump – in 2016 he voted for Libertarian Party candidate Barry Johnson, and in 2020 he supported Biden. He said he hopes Trump loses this year and politics returns to “honest debates about real issues, instead of name-calling, violence and ugliness.”

“I’ve had enough,” he said.