The latest research on Harris vs. Trump

It’s officially election month and presidential election polls indicate that former President Donald Trump may overtake the vice president Kamala Harris among national voters.

While national polls allow us to check the temperature of the electorate, the so-called Electoral College system means the race will most likely be decided seven battlefield states. An exclusive USA TODAY/Suffolk poll from Friday shows Harris and Trump tied together Pennsylvania, a swing state with the highest number of electoral votes.

Trump visits two more “blue wall” states on Friday, with rallies planned in Wisconsin and Michigan. Harris also plans to visit Wisconsin.

Here’s what you need to know about the race location.

Trump is ahead of Harris by 2% in a new AtlasIntel poll.

Trump leads Harris by two percentage points in the new national poll AtlasIntel released on Thursday afternoon.

The survey of 3,490 likely voters from across the United States showed Trump leading Harris 49.1% to 47.2% with a margin of error of two percentage points. When asked about choosing between candidates in a race without third-party options, 49.6% of respondents said they would vote for Trump and 48.2% said they would vote for Harris.

The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday. More AtlasIntel polling is expected before Election Day.

Trump has a slight lead in the latest TIPP poll

The TIPP tracking survey shows Trump took a one percentage point lead on Friday after tying with Harris on Thursday.

The latest poll of 1,249 likely voters showed Trump leading Harris 49% to 48%. The poll, conducted Tuesday through Thursday, had a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points.

“(The poll) shows a tight and close race, with each candidate preparing for a smooth and close landing,” TIPP said. Pollsters expect the numbers to fluctuate between Harris +1 and Trump +2 in the final days before the election.

What to remember when voting

The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results to be representative of the population as a whole.

When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” he says. Pew Research Center.

Pew too found that most pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, when Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.

Kinsey Crowley is a successful reporter at USA TODAY. Contact her at [email protected] and follow her on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley.