Donald Trump is trying to win over white women — here’s why

An analysis of polls shows Republican support among white women is declining, a trend that could have an impact on the former president Donald Trumpelectoral chances.

Historically, white women have been bent over RepublicanWith Mitt Romney winning the group by 9 points in 2012, and Trump by 6 and 7 points in 2016 and 2020, respectively.

But this year, Trump holds a just 1-point lead among white women, marking the weakest showing in that demographic of any GOP candidate this century, according to CNN political analyst Harry Enten, who cited the average of post-election polls from 2012-2020 and pre-election polls this year.

“If that happens, she’s doing the worst among white women for a GOP candidate this century,” said Enten, who previously worked for FiveThirtyEight.

Meanwhile, A Fox News The poll, conducted Oct. 11-14 of 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, found that Trump had a lead among white women of just 4 points. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus percentage points.

Another poll conducted by Harris The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

Without strong support from white women, who make up 36 percent of the electorate, Trump may face challenges, especially women voters consistently favored Vice President Kamala HarrisDemocratic candidate, in the polls.

Enten attributes the shift to issues like abortion, which is a top priority for voters in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, where more than 80 percent of voters are white. In these states a New York TimesA September /Siena College poll of 688 likely voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio found that abortion is the top issue for women, with 27 percent citing it as the most important issue compared to just 8 percent of men.

Although Trump took credit for the US Supreme Court2022 repeal decision Roe v. Wadewho asserted a constitutional right to abortion, took a more moderate stance on the issue compared to many of his Republican peers. Earlier this year, he refused to support a national abortion ban, instead supporting the idea that abortion laws should be set by states. He also expressed support for exceptions in cases of rape and incest.

However, during the Sept. 10 debate with Harris, Trump avoided directly answering whether he would veto a nationwide abortion ban if it came to his desk. Pressed by moderator Linsey Davis, he said, “I won’t have to, because it won’t happen,” and downplayed any discussions on the topic with his running mate, the Ohio senator. JD Vance.

In contrast, Harris has positioned herself as a staunch supporter of reproductive rights. She was driving Democratic Partyefforts on this issue by launching a national campaign for reproductive freedoms and visiting a Planned Parenthood location in Minnesota earlier this year.

Enten suggested that Harris’ strong support for abortion rights could be a key factor in changing the views of white women voters, especially in battleground states.

“After Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, white women in suburban areas in key battleground states have largely turned against Republicans” he said, adding that white women could play a key role in Harris’ victory. “If she wins, it may ultimately be because she did so well with white women.”

Carrie Baker, a professor of women’s, gender and sexuality issues at Smith College in Massachusetts, agreed that it was Trump’s position on reproductive rights that led white women to Harris.

“Over the past two years, with Trump appointing anti-abortion extremists to the Supreme Court who have invalidated constitutional abortion rights, many states have banned and restricted access to abortion,” Baker said. Newsweek. “Pregnant women are denied life-saving medical care and are forced to travel out of state to get the care they need. Some of them died, like Amber Nicole Thurman and Cindi Miller in Georgia.”

Thurman and Miller died from complications related to abortion procedures after the state’s six-week abortion ban went into effect after the repeal Roe v. Wade.

“The criminalization of pregnant women has skyrocketed and access to contraception is declining,” Baker added. “Women, especially young women, feel this reality on earth.”

According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, nearly four in 10 (39 percent) voters under the age of 30 say abortion is the most important issue in the election, doubling the share that said the same in June.

The KFF survey also found that women trust Harris more than Trump to look after their interests (60 percent to 23 percent), and white voters trust Harris over Trump when it comes to health care costs (43 percent to 42 percent). and 61 percent of white women believe the presidential election will have a “major impact” on abortion access in the U.S., an increase of 8 percentage points since June.

Jackie Payne, founder and executive director of Galvanize Action – an advocacy group that, according to its website, focuses on ideologically moderate white women from rural, small town and suburban America to support left-centric candidates – added that while white women “ are not a monolith”, they are becoming “less undecided and increasingly choosing the Harris/Walz ticket”.

Payne cited a Galvanize Action poll from September that found moderate white women’s approval ratings of 46 percent for Harris and 44 percent for Trump.

Katie Gaddini, a professor of sociology at University College London in the UK, echoed Payne’s words Newsweek: “Younger college-educated white women concerned about reproductive rights are supporting Harris, and her campaign in recent months has emphasized “reproductive freedom.”

However, she said, “older white women without a college degree are still more likely to favor Trump because their main concerns are the economy and immigration, and they think Trump would handle those issues better than Harris.”

According to A PBS A News/NPR/Marist poll conducted between September 27 and October 1 shows Trump has a 13-point lead among white women who do not have a college degree, with 55% support for Harris“42 percent The poll surveyed 1,294 likely voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

“It is very important to get white women to vote this year because they vote at higher rates than white men and are highly motivated to vote this year,” Baker said.

According to a recent Fox News poll, 72 percent of white women said they were “extremely motivated” to vote in November.

“White women represent the largest voting bloc in the country and will play a key role in this election,” Payne said. “It is clear that this group will play a major role in deciding our next president.”

In August, the group White Women: Answer the Call raised $8.5 million for Harris’ campaign through: Buzz a call in which 200,000 women took part. Organizer Shannon Watts cited Trump’s campaign rhetoric on abortion as a reason for her support.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.