Here’s who’s winning in the latest Trump-Harris presidential polls

Top line

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a tight race for the White House, but within the margin of error, according to two new polls that show the two are tied – the latest polls show the race is virtually unpredictable less than two weeks before Election Day.

Former President Donald Trump dances on stage after speaking at a campaign rally in Greensboro … (+) Coliseum on October 22, 2024 in Greensboro, North Carolina. (Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)

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Key facts

Trump and Harris are deadlocked at 48% among likely Times/Siena voters. vote released on Friday (margin of error 2.2), results “not encouraging” for Harris as Democrats gained public support in the last election even though they lost the White House, The Times notes.

Polling shows support for Harris has declined since The Times’ previous poll in early October showed her with a 49% to 46% lead over Trump, while at least three polls in the past week showed Trump with a slight lead and six others found Harris to be the leader.

Candidates are also dead – even on CNN/SSRS – 47%. vote released on Friday (margin of error 3.1), which also shows a downward trend for Harris, who led Trump from 48% to 47% in the groups’ September poll, while their poll just after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race showed Trump having 49% and Harris with 46%.

Trump leads 48% to 46%. CNBC Poll registered voters were released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47% to 45% in Wall Street Journal registered voter poll released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5) – a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris was driving 47% to 45% in the magazine’s poll.

Trump also led Harris by two points, 51% to 49%, nationwide among likely voters, including those who lean toward one candidate, the poll found HarrisX/Forbes study released on Wednesday (2.5 margin of error) and gained one point, 49% to 48%, without so-called dieters.

Several other recent polls show Harris ahead: wa Monmouth University Poll of 802 registered voters taken Oct. 17-21 and also released Wednesday, Harris has a 47-44% lead over Trump among respondents who said they “definitely” or “probably” plan to vote for either candidate, while 4% chose “other” and 5% chose no candidate.

In the Economist/YouGov poll, Harris is up three points, from 49% to 46%. questionnaire likely voters were also released on Wednesday (margin of error of 3), when ballots include third-party candidates and respondents are given the option of “other,” “unsure” or “wouldn’t vote,” a one-point drop based on a previous survey conducted by the groups on October 12-15.

Harris leads Morning Consult’s rankings by four points, 50% to 46%. weekly survey released Tuesday, consistent with last week’s results, but down from a 51%-45% lead in the two polls a week ago.

Reuters/Ipsos votealso released Tuesday, showed Harris with a three-point lead, 46% to 43% (but two points if rounded numbers are used, within the poll’s two-point margin of error); Last week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll also showed him with a three-point lead, 45% to 42%.

In the USA Today/Suffolk University poll, Harris is ahead by one point, 45% to 44%. vote likely voters were taken Oct. 14-18 (3.1 margin of error) as Trump has tightened the margins since the groups’ last poll in August, which showed Harris with a five-point lead.

Harris also trailed Trump by just one point, 49-48%. Emerson College Survey likely voters were released Friday after Harris gained a two-point lead in September and early October and a four-point lead in August.

Harris has erased Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, according to FiveThirtyEight research, though her lead has declined slightly over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August. weighted average of polls.

Who is the favorite to win the election, Harris or Trump?

According to FiveThirtyEight, Trump is the favorite 51 out of 100 to win, compared to 49 for Harris. election forecast. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver also gives Trump a narrow 52.8/46.9 edgebut he recently wrote that he has “never seen an election where the forecast stayed around 50/50 for any length of time.”

A large number

1.7. That’s how many points Harris leads Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average. Meanwhile, “a truly clear policy” poll average shows a tie, with Nate Silver leading Harris by 1.3 points Silver Bulletin Forecast.

How does Harris fare against Trump in swing states?

Harris leads Michigan, Nevada AND Wisconsinwhile Trump is in the lead Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia AND Arizona– reports the Silver Bulletin. All states have margins of less than two points.

A surprising fact

Survey from NBC News released on September 29 showed that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll – conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 Latino registered voters – found 54% supported Harris compared to 40% who supported Trump and 6% who said they were unsure. who would they vote for? Harris’s support is higher than when Biden ran against Trump, NBC says, but is still significantly lower than previous leads for Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in polls in 2020 and a 50-point lead in polls in 2016 .The poll had a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.

How did the debate affect the polls?

Pre-debate research showed Harris’s polling growth leveled off, including NPR/PBS/Marist growth questionnaire registered voters, a Sept. 3-5 poll that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, up from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that a majority of respondents believed Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly influence the horse race between them. New York Times/Siena vote likely voters revealed on September 19 said that a majority of voters across all demographic groups had a favorable opinion of Harris’ performance in the September 10 debate, with 67% overall saying she performed well, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump. Harris’s numbers increased 52-46% among likely voters and 51-47% among registered voters in the survey ABC News/Ipsos poll taken a few days after the September 11-13 debate, essentially unchanged from her six-point lead with likely voters in end of August AND beginning of August ABC/Ipsos research – even though 63% of Americans said Harris won debate.

Key background

Biden it fell out race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately approved Harris and she announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly rallied around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting for her official nomination during a virtual roll call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his vice presidential candidate. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris’s poll surge is matched by an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which he has almost twice Since Harris entered the race, the percentage has jumped from 46% in June to 85% today, according to Monmouth University, while enthusiasm among Republicans has remained steady at 71%. vote released on August 14.