Resistance forces are pushing the military regime in Burma to the brink

BANGKOK – Three well-armed militias launched a surprise joint offensive in northeastern Myanmar a year ago, breaking a strategic stalemate with the regime’s army, quickly capturing vast swathes of territory and inspiring others to launch attacks across the country.

The military’s control seemed firmly entrenched, thanks to enormous numerical and firepower superiority, as well as material support from Russia and China. But today the government is falling further and further behind, having lost dozens of outposts, bases and strategic towns that even its leaders admit will be difficult to regain.

“The military is on the defensive across the country and every time they concentrate their energy in one part of the country, they basically have to redeploy troops and then they are vulnerable in other parts,” said Connor Macdonald of the Special Advisory Council for the Burma Support Group .

“It does not appear that the military has a viable route back to regain lost territory.”

The military seized power from the elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi in February 2021, sparking intensified fighting against long-established armed militias organized by Myanmar’s ethnic minorities in border regions that have been fighting for greater autonomy for decades.

The army’s takeover also resulted in the creation of pro-democracy militias called the People’s Defense Forces. They support the opposition Government of National Unity, which was formed by elected parliamentarians stripped of their seats after the military took power.

But by the time Operation 1027 took its title from its launch on October 27, the military known as the Tatmadaw was largely able to prevent major losses across the country.

Operation 1027 brought coordinated attacks by the three most powerful ethnic armed groups, known as the Three Brotherhood Alliance: the Burma National Democratic Alliance Army, the Arakan Army and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. The alliance quickly captured cities and military bases and outposts along the Chinese border in northeastern Shan State.

Two weeks later, the Arakan Army launched attacks in its western Rakhine state, and has since been joined by other militia groups and PDFs across the country.

The Burmese army was pushed back to the center of the country

A year after the offensive began, resistance forces now fully or partially control a huge horseshoe of territory. It begins in Rakhine State in the west, runs through the north, and then heads south to Kayah and Kayin states along the border with Thailand. The Tatmadaw withdrew towards central Myanmar, around the capital Naypyidaw and the largest city Rangoon.

“I never thought our goals would be achieved so quickly,” Lway Yay Oo, spokesman for the Ta’ang National Liberation Army, told The Associated Press. “We just thought that we would attack the Military Council together as much as we could, but it turned out to be easier than we expected, so we were able to win faster.”

Along the way, the Tatmadaw suffered several humiliating defeats, including the loss of the town of Laukkai in an assault in which the Burma National Democratic Alliance Army captured over 2,000 soldiers, including six generals; and the city of Lashio, which was the headquarters of the military Northeastern Command.

“The 1027 offensive was an impressive operation, quite complex, and the use of drones played a big role because they were able to essentially dismantle the network of military fire support bases in the northern Shan,” said Morgan Michaels, a Singapore-based agent analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, who is leading the project Maps of Conflicts in Burma.

“And then, as the army’s artillery support waned, they were able to raid more difficult targets, such as towns and battalion headquarters.”

A year later, the military is “significantly weakened,” he said, but it’s too early to write it off.

The army was weakened but not defeated

The Tatmadaw managed to retake the city of Kawlin in the Sagaing region, which had fallen in the early days of the 1027 Offensive, repelled an attack by three ethnic Karenni militias on Loikaw, the capital of Kayah State, and retained administrative control of Myawaddy, a key border crossing with Thailand, after repelling the attack one ethnic group with the help of a rival militia.

Many expect the military to launch a counteroffensive as the rainy season soon comes to an end, bolstered by some 30,000 new troops since conscription began in February and achieved total air superiority.

But at the same time, resistance groups are approaching Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, located in the center of the country.

And where they might have had an advantage in weapons, they have gained strength, hard-won experience and confidence over the past year, said Lway Yay Oo of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army.

“We have military experience on our side and based on this experience we can strengthen the combat operation,” she said.

Thet Swe, a spokesman for the military regime, admitted that it would be a challenge for the Tatmadaw to dislodge the Three Brothers Alliance from the territory it had captured.

“We cannot undo this in one year,” he told the AP in an emailed response to questions. “But I hope to give you some happy news… in the next two or three years.”

The civilian death toll is rising as the military increasingly carries out indiscriminate attacks

As the military faced setbacks in ground combat, it increasingly relied on massive air and artillery attacks, leading to a 95% increase in civilian deaths from airstrikes and a 170% increase in the number of civilians killed by artillery since the 1027 offensive began according to a report prepared last month by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.

The Tatmadaw has been accused of deliberately targeting civilians it believes support resistance militias, a tactic that only turns more against them, said Isabel Todd, coordinator of the SAC-M group.

“It doesn’t seem to be having the effect they expect,” she said. “This makes them even more hated by the public and really strengthens the determination to ensure this is the end of the Burma Army as it is known.”

Military spokesman Thet Swe denied attacking civilians, saying militia groups were responsible for killing civilians and burning villages.

Hundreds of thousands of civilians have been displaced by the fighting, and according to the United Nations, there are now more than 3 million internally displaced people in Myanmar, with an estimated 18.6 million people in need of assistance

At the same time, the 2024 humanitarian response plan is only 1/3 funded, making it difficult to deliver aid, said Sajjad Mohammad Sajid, head of operations for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in Myanmar.

“The humanitarian outlook for next year is grim and we anticipate that the worsening situation will have a major impact on the protection of civilians,” he said in an interview.

But the offensive has eased pressure in some areas, such as the northwestern Chinese state that borders Bangladesh and India and has previously been the subject of many Tatmadaw operations, said Salai Htet Ni, a spokesman for China’s National Front, whose armed wing has been involved in fighting against army.

“Military convoys going to the mountains of China were withdrawn last October,” he said. “Almost no major military action occurred as a result of Operation 1027.”

Success brings new tensions between resistance groups

As the front expanded, militias were seen withdrawing from their own ethnic areas, as when the Rakhine-based Arakan Army captured the town of Paletwa in Chin in January, which caused some friction between groups, foreshadowing possible future conflicts in the event the Tatmadaw eventually collapses .

In the case of Paletwa, Salai Htet Ni said his group was happy that the AA had taken it from the Tatmadaw, but added that negotiations should have been held before operating on Chinese territory and that the AA should now bring in Chinese forces to help administer the area.

“Negotiations are mandatory for issues related to regional administration,” he said. “However, we will negotiate this matter through dialogue, not through military means.”

There is currently a degree of solidarity between different ethnic groups as they focus on a common enemy, but Aung Thu Nyein, director of communications for the Myanmar Institute of Strategy and Policy’s think tank, said this does not translate into shared aspirations .

The collapse of the Tatmadaw could fragment Myanmar unless the groups work hard to resolve political and territorial differences.

“As far as I can see, there is no established mechanism for resolving the issues,” he said. “It is unlikely that the resistance will be able to topple the junta, but I cannot underestimate this scenario (and) if we fail to build trust and common goals, it could lead to a Syrian scenario.”

Chinese interests and ties to both sides complicate the picture

The political situation is complicated by the influence of neighboring China, which is believed to have tacitly supported the 1027 offensive in what proved to be an effective attempt to significantly curb organized crime activity that was flourishing along its border.

In January, Beijing used its close ties to both the Tatmadaw and the Three Brotherhood groups to negotiate a ceasefire in northern Shan that lasted five months until the ethnic alliance launched the second phase of the 1027 offensive in June, accusing the military of violating the ceasefire.

China has been unhappy with the development, closing border crossings, cutting power to Myanmar’s cities and taking other actions in a so-far unsuccessful attempt to end the fighting.

His support for the regime also appears to be growing, with China’s envoy to Burma urging the powerful United State Army, which did not participate in the 1027 offensive or related fighting, to actively put pressure on the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army and Ta ‘ang According to the disclosed details of the August meeting, widely reported by local media, the National Liberation Army suspended its renewed offensive.

However, there is no evidence that the UWSA did this.

“The notion that northern groups, the Three Brothers Alliance, etc. are somehow simply agents of China is a complete misconception,” Todd said.

“They have their own goals that they are pursuing that are independent of what China may or may not want, and that is evident in the incredible pressure that China has put on them recently.”

Because of grassroots support for the resistance movement, it is less susceptible to outside influence, said Kyaw Zaw, spokesman for the opposition Government of National Accord.

“No matter who puts pressure on us, we win through people power,” he said.