Colorado older women’s turnout tsunami nationwide | NOONAN | Opinion

This election is generating Halloween fear on all sides, with polls moving up and down in the slightest spooky wind. Finally, Colorado ballot returns offer actual voting data to provide some insight. Comparing this data to Pennsylvania’s voting results provides evidence for our informed election guesses.

So far, Democratic women over age 45 in Colorado are outperforming Republican men of the same age by 18,000 votes and Republican women by 24,000 votes. Equally interesting, in Colorado they make up the majority of unaffiliated voters, and Democratic women over the age of 45 outnumber unaffiliated women in this cohort by 5,000 votes. The only over-45 cohort to outvote these women are unaffiliated men (UAF) by a majority of 3,600 votes.

As of Monday, after a week off, Democrats make up 35.66% of all Colorado voters, Republicans 27% and unaffiliated 37.5%. If history is any indication, and the UAF has split roughly between the percentages of Democratic and Republican active voters, Democrats are in a strong position. These results give Adam Frisch in CD-3 and Yadira Caraveo in CD-8 a solid springboard. It puts pressure on Republicans to cast their votes and clear up the backlog.

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Pennsylvania also released early voting data. Democrats returned 1.7 million votes to Republicans’ 623,404. Pennsylvania does not have the number of unaffiliated voters that we have in Colorado. Their political parties clearly have something to offer their citizens.

Another interesting feature in Pennsylvania is that 1.94 million Democrats requested ballots, while only 784,851 Republicans. Apparently Republicans will take over this vote on Election Day. That’s risky, especially considering Trump’s latest insult about Puerto Ricans.

Another feature of the Keystone State is the return of older voters’ ballots. Voters over 45 years of age cast the largest number of ballots. If former President Donald Trump is counting on young men to swell his numbers, he’ll have to move fast. Of course, he has the most experience there.

For Vice President Kamala Harris, the news in Pennsylvania is mostly good because most of the votes are in the Northeast, where Democrats have an advantage. Philadelphia County returned 85% of its absentee ballots, so there is still room for growth.

Comparing Colorado to Pennsylvania, both have strong vote-by-mail returns, with voters over the age of 45 leading the way. Pennsylvania does not break down the number of incoming mail by gender, but if the voting results are the same as in Colorado, Trump’s attitude towards women will be his biggest problem.

In Colorado, women over the age of 45 don’t buy his idea that he is the best candidate for women because he will protect and save women from everything. Older women especially don’t buy this message.

It’s easy to speculate on the reasons why a woman would back-of-the-hands to a former president. Many of the women he allegedly assaulted, and the only woman he was convicted of, were over the age of 60. Women voters over the age of 45 have lived long enough to experience abuse, unwanted touching, groping and assault, which unfortunately were often a fact of life in their lives, including in the workplace. And in every other place.

Women aged 45 to 65 are in their prime working and earning age. They know Trump will not lead in sponsoring legislation for equal pay for equal work. They suspect he will help fellow billionaires like Elon Musk keep their workers’ wages low, supposedly to treat inflation.

Middle-class women over the age of 45 have largely coped with childcare expenses, only to watch their daughters and sons rack up student loan debt so they can possibly gain a good college experience ‘u and find a well-paid job. This scenario too often causes children or parents to fall into long-term debt. Trump fails to address the cost of higher education and the devastating impact of student loans.

Women over the age of 75 grew up in a time when abortion was illegal. They carry these memories and are reminded of them almost every time Trump’s vice presidential nominee, J.D. Vance, opens his mouth. Women aged 45+ worry that they won’t have grandchildren to love because their adult children are burdened by student loans and their daughters are burdened by low wages. The federal minimum wage is $7.25 an hour, which isn’t even enough to cover one Junior Whopper without cheese at Burger King. Trump is unlikely to make significant changes to the federal minimum wage.

Vice President Harris may not be able to deliver child tax credits, newborn dollars, a minimum wage increase, and equal pay legislation. But she will try. She will certainly work to overturn the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision and support women’s reproductive rights. It will propose legislation to reduce the risks associated with firearms and increase the safety of school children who are burdened with shooting practice instead of taking part in spelling bees.

These are just some of the reasons why women, especially women over the age of 45, are choosing to vote in such large numbers. No matter how much young men like Trump, it will be difficult for them to overcome this tsunami of women without Trump.

Paula Noonan is the owner of Colorado Capitol Watch, the premier platform for tracking the state legislature.