Car bomb attacks signal escalation of cartel violence in Mexico

Cartel violence captures Mexico. In the state of Guerrero, the mayor of Chilpancingo was beheaded. A truck containing at least five bodies was discovered in Sinaloa with the ominous message “Welcome to Culiacán.” And now Guanajuato was rocked by two explosions.

Police in the city of Acámbaro reported a car bomb attack outside their office that injured at least three officers, burned seven vehicles and caused extensive property damage. Just a few hours earlier, another attack was reported in the city of Jerécuaro, just 30 km away: a car exploded and several others were set on fire, including a police car. No deaths have been reported.

According to official data, Guanajuato is the Mexican state with the highest number of intentional homicides – 1,863 murder investigations were opened this year. The state is struggling to understand these brutal events because no criminal organization has taken responsibility. The new governor, who took office less than a month ago, is looking for answers.

“The events that took place in Acámbaro and Jerécuaro will not stop our efforts to restore peace in Guanajuato,” said Libya Dennise García Muñoz Ledo, who was inaugurated as the state’s governor on September 26. In response to the violence, it announced a coordinated ground and air operation to apprehend those responsible and suspended its public program to address the emergency.

Politics and narco-terrorism?

“This new wave is the result of a change in government,” says analyst David Saucedo, who attributes the attacks to the start of a new political cycle. He claims the state government reshuffle has led to an “attitude of resignation” among departing officials, coinciding with the intention of criminal groups to send a “strong signal” to new leaders.

“Criminal organizations operating in this area try to dominate local governments, and if they encounter resistance or opposition, they resort to acts of narco-terrorism to undermine their credibility in public opinion,” he explains. Saucedo firmly believes that the attacks are narco-terrorist in nature because they are intended to instill fear among the population and force the authorities to surrender to organized crime.

However, other experts are hesitant to classify the explosions in Jerécuaro and Acámbaro as acts of terrorism. The classic definition of terrorism includes the use of violence to achieve political or religious goals. Víctor Hernández, a researcher at Tec de Monterrey University, argues that this definition may not apply in this case because the intentions behind the attacks remain unclear. “If the Sinaloa cartel or the Jalisco cartel tried to take control of the Mexican state and replace it, we could talk about drug terrorism. The reality is that organized crime is primarily interested in keeping the government in its pocket,” he claims.

This debate extends beyond academic circles; During the US election campaign, ultraconservative factions of the Republican Party and factions close to Donald Trump support the classification of cartels as terrorist organizations in order to justify U.S. military interventions in Mexico. “We have to be careful with labels,” Saucedo warns. The discussion has also permeated Mexican politics: while the National Action Party (PAN) and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) have called these and other attacks “acts of terrorism”, the leftist Morena party tends to downplay incidents of violence, accusing the media and opposition of “exaggeration” .

War in Guanajuato

The split in the Sinaloa cartel gained media attention during the final stage of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s term and at the beginning of Sheinbaum’s rule. However, official figures updated in late September show that Guanajuato will have more than double the number of homicides in 2024 compared to Sinaloa. The ongoing conflict between the Santa Rosa de Lima cartel and Jalisco Nueva Generación Cartel sparked a wave of violence across the state. Just last week, three women were shot dead in Celaya, human remains were discovered in Yuriria, six were injured in a shooting in Acámbaro and a deliberate fire broke out at a garbage dump in Villagrán.

Analyst David Saucedo hypothesizes that the Santa Rosa de Lima cartel is behind these attacks, as both municipalities are considered to be the group’s areas of influence and their modus operandi is consistent with their tactics. “Explosives are their trademark,” he explains.

In January 2019, at the beginning of López Obrador’s offensive against huachicol (fuel theft) the cartel abandoned a van filled with explosives outside a refinery in Salamanca, which was later deactivated. In 2020, further warnings appeared, including: a car bomb left in front of the refinery that did not detonate and another explosion in front of the refinery National Guard Base in Celaya which did not cause any injuries.

In 2021, two people delivered a “gift bomb” to restaurant owners in Salamanca, resulting in two deaths and five injuries. In 2022, two police officers were ambushed with remote-controlled explosives in Irapuato, and last June, 10 National Guard agents were injured by a car bomb in the rural community of Celaya. The attacks in Jerécuaro and Acámbaro were not isolated incidents.

In the absence of an official report on recent attacks, Saucedo notes that Santa Rosa de Lima typically uses explosives to demand payment for protection, undermine the operational capacity of security forces, divert attention from authorities or assert control. “There is no other criminal group in the region that has the potential, expertise or history in using explosives,” he concludes.

On the other hand, analyst Víctor Hernández suggests that the tactical use of explosives may point to the Jalisco cartel, describing it as “a brutal, bloodthirsty and predatory cartel of the local economy”. Authorities have not yet published preliminary findings from their investigations. It is also possible that each group will try to incriminate their rivals in order to attract the attention of law enforcement. Guanajuato remains a battlefield full of uncertainty.

Bombs, grenades and drones

The use of bombs and drones has also spread to other sites of violence across Mexico. In Michoacán, the Jalisco Cartel has been reported to have used landmines in rural areas, and just two weeks ago there was a bomb threat at a shopping mall in Morelia, the state capital. Last week, a homemade bomb was deactivated in Sinaloa ongoing disputes between Los Mayos and Los Chapitos. Late last year, the Ministry of National Defense reported the seizure of 33 drones in eight different states since 2019, with more than half recovered in Michoacán, followed by Guanajuato.

Hernández points out that the Sinaloa cartel has made pragmatic alliances with the Santa Rosa de Lima cartel to carry out raids in Guanajuato and combat their common enemy, the Jalisco cartel. He compares events such as the drone attack in Tepalcatepec, Michoacán, to scenes seen during the invasion of Ukraine. Two months ago, three drug factories producing homemade and artisanal explosives, as well as several mortars, were discovered in Michoacán. Perhaps the most famous precedent for such an attack on civilians occurred 16 years ago during Independence Day celebrations in Morelia, where at least eight people were killed in a coordinated grenade attack. No group claimed responsibility for the attack.

José Antonio Yépez Ortiz, known as “El Marro,” was arrested in August 2020 after six years running the Santa Rosa de Lima cartel, marking one of the most publicized victories of the López Obrador administration against organized crime. However, Hernández claims that although authorities promised that the arrest would end the violence, this did not happen, arguing that the situation in Guanajuato is an example of the failure of a strategy to arrest prominent leaders.

“They don’t reduce violence; in fact, they often tighten them in the medium term,” he says. Regarding the recent attacks, he adds: “Although assembling a car bomb is complex and requires technical skills, it cannot destroy a police station or cause a massacre. This has more of a psychological impact than an actual one.

Saucedo is also skeptical about the effectiveness of the government’s anti-crime strategy, questioning whether change will actually come under the leadership of Guanajuato’s first female governor and Mexico’s first female president. “The drug trade narrative is more powerful than the government narrative. We only see the plans and ideas of the authorities, and drug traffickers fight with blood and fire,” he sums up.

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