A red flag warning is in effect for almost all of New York City. What is the danger of a fire on the weekend? – NBC New York

Fire danger in parts of the tri-state area is at extreme red flag levels. The combination of extremely dry ground, low relative humidity and gusty winds creates the perfect environment for fires to start and spread quickly.

We’ve been saying it for weeks: it was an exceptionally dry autumn. Only about an inch and a half of rain fell in September, and most of it fell at the end of the month. October was even drier, bringing weeks without a measurable drop of rain in Central Park.

Effective October 26, emergency burning is prohibited in all Connecticut state parks. New Jersey is under Stage 3 fire restrictions, which means no charcoal lighting or any fires may be lit in wooded areas. Burning is permitted only on an elevated stove using propane, natural gas or electricity.

Due to the current extreme fire danger, no matter where you are, it is best to exercise extreme caution and avoid using flames outdoors – including camp fires, grilling or burning leaves. You should also be especially careful with ash and cigarette butts. They must be disposed of properly to avoid starting a fire.

Red flag warnings are issued when conditions favoring fire development reach a critical level. This is determined by relative humidity, maximum wind gusts and available dry brush.

The extreme fire danger stems from a cold front that moved through the region Friday morning, bringing much drier air to the region and significantly lowering relative humidity – a measure of moisture content in the atmosphere. When relative humidity levels approach 30% or below, the fire hazard increases dramatically. The drier the atmosphere, the greater the risk of fire.

The cold front also increases winds. Sustained winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph provide enough movement for the fires to spread very quickly, making them difficult to contain.

But to light a fire, you need kindling. The kindling for fires is mostly dry brush, and there is plenty of it thanks to the surprising lack of rain so far this season.

Since climate records began in Central Park in 1869, there has not been a month without measurable precipitation. On Tuesday, the 29th day of October, we finally managed to accumulate the minimum amount of measurable rain: 0.01 inch.

But that was it for the whole month. October 2024 was officially the driest calendar month ever recorded, breaking the previous record of 0.02 inches set more than 75 years ago in June 1949.

This near-dry October, preceded by a relatively miserable September, has left us with a rainfall deficit of over 7 inches so far. We haven’t seen such a dry start to fall in over 130 years (for history buffs, Benjamin Harrison was president at the time).

The lack of rain affects the vegetation, which is clearly visible in the progress of drought. There was no drought in our region at the beginning of September. According to the latest drought monitoring update on October 31, New Jersey is currently experiencing at least moderate drought, with more than 50% of that drought considered “severe.”

By comparison, New Jersey has not had a severe drought level above 50% since 2002.

Extremely dry conditions increase the amount of dry brush available, literally providing more fuel to our fires. This makes it easier for fires to spread.

And the fire threat will only worsen as the rainfall deficit increases. Rainfall forecasts for the next seven days are not optimistic.

No amount of rain we can get will be enough to even begin to erase the deficit we find ourselves in. Until devastating rains arrive, expect our wildfire concerns to continue.