Reports show that conspiracy theories pose the biggest threat to the elections

USA TODAY looks at the week of extremism

Federal intelligence agencies have identified domestic extremists driven by election conspiracy theories as the most likely source of violence in next week’s election, study finds. new NBC News report. Two new studies by groups monitoring domestic extremism confirm this assessment.

Meanwhile, USA TODAY reports about the family of Stewart Rhodes, founder of Oath Keepers, who fear for their lives if former President Donald Trump pardons Rhodes. There is also great, long read about the fall of a neo-Nazi in rural Maine, and the company is one sale of political data determining whether people support QAnon, the January 6 insurrection, and other far-right initiatives.

This is extremism week.

Report: Conspiracy-driven domestic extremists pose a threat to elections

Domestic extremists driven by complaints of alleged voter fraud and conspiracy theories pose the greatest threat of violence in next week’s election, according to a joint intelligence briefing from the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security. as reported by NBC News this week.

From NBC: “The report indicates potential targets include candidates, elected officials, election workers, members of the media and judges involved in election-related matters. “Potential threats include physical attacks and violence at polling stations, ballot boxes, voter registration sites, and campaign rallies and events.”
That assessment reflects what extremism experts told USA TODAY. In interviews and phone calls with experts from the Anti-Defamation League, the Global Project on Hate and Extremism, and the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, experts monitoring domestic extremism expressed concerns about flare-ups at polling places, especially vote counting centers in swing states.
Most experts USA TODAY spoke with are in a “wait and see” phase and concerned about potential flashpoints — especially if they are promoted by Trump, who infamously called on his supporters to rally at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021.
Although many of the organized groups that formed the backbone of the January 6 insurrection did just that broken or resolved, the possibility of violence remains very real, according to an intelligence report viewed by NBC:
“The United States remains in a heightened, dynamic threat environment, and we continue to share information with our law enforcement partners on the threats posed by domestic violent extremists in the context of the 2024 elections.” – DHS spokeswoman Mayra Rodriguez told the network in a statement.

Reports of extremism also point to election-related violence

Two other reports released this week by groups monitoring domestic extremism also raise the specter of election-related violence in the coming days and weeks.

AND new report of the Global Hate and Extremism Project looked at online “conversations” about the election and warns that the rhetoric circulating today reflects what was seen in the days before the 2020 elections.
For example, on the secure messaging platform Telegram, GPAHE noted: “As in 2020, violent election denial rhetoric increased by 317 percent in October 2024. Posts published on Telegram include using election denial to justify an apparent “”inevitable” civil war” and a call to “shoot to kill illegal voters.” “
Meanwhile, new report from the Bridging Divides Initiative at Princeton University outlined the trend prevailing at USA TODAY stayed monitoring for last two years: Increasing number of threats against public sector workers, especially election officials.
BDI researchers interviewed more than 150 election officials across the country and concluded: “These interviews painted a disturbing picture of hostility at the local level, but they also revealed a wide range of tools officials use to respond to threats and harassment.”

The Oath Keepers founder’s family is terrified he will be pardoned

AND main USA TODAY report This week we tell the story of Tasha and Dakota Adams and the family of Elmer Stewart Rhodes, founder of the Oath Keepers, who last year was sentenced to 18 years in prison for seditious conspiracy. Rhodes’ family, who say they lived under his tyranny for decades, are terrified that Trump will pardon him and take revenge on them.

Trump is increasingly pompous about his plans to pardon the insurrectionists on January 6 if he wins next week’s election. His campaign did not comment on whether he would pardon Rhodes, saying the former president would make decisions “on a case-by-case basis.”
Rhodes, who received the second-longest sentence handed down on Jan. 6, is divorced from Tasha Adams, who accused him of years of physical and psychological abuse of her and her six children. Adams and her oldest son fear that Rhodes will seek revenge for her testifying against him during his impeachment and because of past conflicts.
“He’s someone who had a kill list – always,” Adams told USA TODAY, noting that Rhodes kept that list in his head, not on paper. “And of course I’m on that list now, as are some of my children, I’m sure.”
Rhodes’ lawyers say there is no evidence that Rhodes poses a threat to Adams.

How a neo-Nazi was driven out of Maine

Other great long read this week comes from The Atavist magazine, which includes the story of Nazi Christopher Pohlhaus, also known as “Hammer,” who unsuccessfully tried to establish a white supremacist complex in rural Maine.

Pohlhaus was forced out of America’s whitest state by journalists’ investigations, which made his neighbors resent him.

Polling company sells database of far-right conspiracy theorists

Political data research company sells voter database identifying Americans based on their support for far-right conspiracy theories and so-called armed militia groups, study finds new Politico report this week.

From history: “L2 Data collects a wide network of information about voters’ preferences on issues such as defense, spending and the economy. But unlike other data companies, L2 also measures or estimates voter support for the most divisive and potentially threatening far-right themes.”
According to Politico, the information sold by the company is bought by politicians from both sides of the conflict.

Stat of the week: Over a fifth

This percentage of U.S. senators are considered “at risk” of opposing the certification of the results of next week’s election on January 6, according to new research from the voting rights association Public Wise.

Public Wise identified 24 senators and seven U.S. Senate candidates who “either voted against certification, publicly announced plans to vote against certification in 2020, publicly questioned the results of the 2020 or 2022 elections, refused to say whether they would accept the election results in 2024 and/or spreading disinformation about voting and elections.”

USA TODAY too every member of Congress asked last month whether they would confirm the election process. Of those who responded, most incumbents vowed to uphold the election results