Meet the voters who despise Trump but really like JD Vance

Former President Donald Trump had already announced this Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio as his running mateconventional wisdom took place that it wasn’t a good choice. Vance is “historically unpopular” Democrats accuse, and even some Republicans show no enthusiasm.

But there is a group of voters for whom Vance, not Trump, is the attraction of the GOP ticket – its only attraction. Those voters who have never been Trump, or maybe Vance, are small in number and may not yet know how they will vote. But in a tight race, their decisions could make a difference.

I came across this group by accident: I happen to know a few people who think this way in real life. When I sketched the voter profile on Substackthe response was quick and surprising, both to me and to voters who didn’t realize there were others like them. Keep in mind that this is a small sample, not a scientific survey, but the cumulative nature of the opinions collected reveals a certain type. “Damn, you described me perfectly here,” commented Thomas, an evangelical dad from Georgia.

Like Thomas, the typical voters who have never been Trump, or maybe Vance, are men. These are millennials, perhaps younger Generation X or older Generation Z. They are married fathers (or want to be) who went to college and work in white-collar jobs. And they do go to church, but probably not in the charismatic strand of Protestantism targeted by Trump devotion and prophecy.

Most importantly, these voters have all the moral reservations and visceral dislike for Trump that were expected of conservative Christians in 2016. They probably don’t call themselves “Never-Trumpers” and aren’t busy criticizing the former president as a self-proclaimed “Never-Trumper.” Trumpers usually are. But they never voted for Trump, they didn’t like him in office, and they don’t want him re-elected.

However, Vance is intriguing to them, and not only politically. Mainly with some problems around trade and workVance’s politics may actually be a flaw. Other positions, e.g his skepticism U.S. military intervention abroad may be an upside. But the biggest draw is Vance’s orientation to fatherhood and family the way it connects children and the American dream and his clear pro-natalist interest family policy AND fertility rates.

Vance’s views on “the value of family really resonate with me,” said Eddie Becker, who attends a nondenominational church and expressed dismay at Trump’s continued support among fellow Christians and Republicans. “Aside from the snide remarks like ‘childless cat ladies,'” Becker said of Vance, “I believe he actually cares about families and values ​​children.”

For Christina of Boise, Idaho, who told me she fit that voter profile except for gender, Vance’s disparagement of “childless catwomen” only signaled that he was serious about family. “I admire his love for his wife, children, Mamaw and his faith,” she said. “I see people shudder at the thought of having children and it scares me.” In comparison, she finds Vance “super.”

The way Vance talks about family is also part of why these voters identify with him, which is an important part of his appeal. Rob Spangler, a Presbyterian from Maryland and father of four, emphasized this sense of identification when explaining to me his interest in Vance. Thomas added that while watching Vance, “it was the first time I saw someone in politics and I thought, ‘That could be me.'”

Beyond the family atmosphere, some elements of this lineup are as simple as similarities in age and stage: Vance is a young father and the first millennial to win a major-party ticket after decades of boomer dominance. But that could have been the case for any candidate of the same age as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis or Vivek Ramaswamy. These voters’ attachment to Vance runs deeper.

Like them, Vance is bookish and outspoken seriously about your Christian faith. He is the first viable contender for high office they would like to run have a beer. In Vance they see someone – in the starkest contrast to Trump – who under different circumstances could be a friend. Several have told me that when Vance is attacked as “weird” they bristle a little. If he’s weird, they’re weird too.

It’s hard to say how many voters there are who never had Trump, or maybe Vance. Perhaps the most useful data comes from Cygnal study 1,500 likely voters last month. For most demographic groups, including unmarried men and men who were not in college, Trump’s approval ratings were statistically the same or higher than Vance’s.

However, among married men and men who went to college, Vance received a more favorable rating by a margin of 4 to 5 percentage points. Cygnal also separated responses from “double haters”, small (and shrinkage) the subset of voters who reject both majority party candidates. For them, Trump’s favorability is zero, but Vance’s favorability is as high as 33%.

These are not big numbers. I don’t think this group numbers in the millions, even on a national scale. But this poll suggests that there could be enough voters who were never Trump, or maybe Vance, for their decisions to matter five statesas of this writing, the gap in the presidential polls is less than 1 point.

So the question is whether Never loses to Maybe — whether they will stick to their eight-year aversion, or decide that voting for Trump is a price worth paying for voting for Vance. The choice may depend on how they think the Trump-Vance administration will act. Perhaps Vance would have real power become president myself? Or would he be relegated to frivolous and dirty work for a lame duck?

The voters I spoke to were mostly undecided. Luis, a millennial from Virginia, expects to vote by mail. While he likes how Vance recognizes “that modern life makes it harder to create different social connections,” especially “with respect to birth rates,” the candidate’s denial of election and profanity make it harder to get him votes this year.

Thomas is leaning toward a third-party presidential candidate, but favors the GOP later in the vote. “Christina won’t commit until she’s at the ballot box, but she said she’ll probably vote for ‘Trump-Vance’ and then go to confession and pray some more for our country.” Becker is still weighing his options, but is disappointed that Vance has failed to “stand up to the Trump cult” in the GOP. “The only thing I can say for sure,” he concluded, “is that I will not vote for Donald Trump.”

Spangler also remains undecided. On the debate stage, Vance came across as reasonable and diplomatic, a sharp contrast to his running mate. “I’m still incredibly conflicted about it,” Spangler told me. “My absentee ballot stares at me almost every day.”