These races will determine control of Congress

Lisa Mascaro, AP Congressional Correspondent

WASHINGTON (AP) – Final doors are knocking, ads are being heard and candidates are taking their final step before voters. Even with a spirited final attack, the race is on control of Congress are at an impasse, which basically means a tie for the House and a fight to the end for the Senate.

The outcome of Tuesday’s election will shape the future of the country, determining whether the new White House has allies or skeptics on Capitol Hill, or whether it will face a divided Congress like last session, which was one of the most turbulent and unproductive in modern times.

As voters weigh their presidential options among Republicans Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harristhey also determine who will represent them in Congress.

“This is why I’m an independent,” said voter Gary Motta of Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio, who is not happy with either president’s choice, as he showed up early Sunday morning at an event for Republican Kevin Coughlin, who is trying to unseat Democratic Rep. Emilia Sykes.

The fight for control of Congress has been going on for months. The candidates argued about important issues – the economy, the border, reproductive health care and the future of democracy – but also about Congress itself, which had chaotic session when the GOP-led House removed its speaker and narrowly avoided a government shutdown.

This is the first presidential election since the presidential election January 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, and many Republican lawmakers who voted against the White House’s certification of Democrat Joe Biden’s victory over Trump are up for re-election.

Republican Party candidates, many of whom have the former president’s support, must answer for him on several fronts. Among them is a Supreme Court decision with three judges nominated by Trump that stripped him of his right to citizenship access to abortion.

Democrats face tough questions during their tenure in the White House over Biden and Harris’ record on the U.S.-Mexico border and inflation.

Most closely contested House campaigns are taking place outside presidential swing states, including New York AND California, where Republican Kevin McCarthy, who was ousted as speaker and then left Congress, took his home state by storm. Democrats under New York Hakeem Jeffries, Speaker of the House of Representatives of this party, now they are trying to get it back.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., during an interview with The Associated Press, Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024, in Irvine, Calif. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Since Saturday, California Republican Pete Aguilar, chairman of the Democratic caucus, has been making nine stops through the Golden State to pick up backseat seats.

“There’s a lot of energy there,” Washington Republican Suzan DelBene, who heads the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in an interview in Omaha, Nebraska, a surprising battleground state, after flying through New York. “We’re just working hard to get the vote out.”

She said there are “tons of volunteers on site, tons of energy, people very, very focused. They understand that the stakes are high.”

As campaign fundraising continues to grow, this election year stands out: A whopping $2.5 billion was spent on campaign fundraising win the Senate and nearly $1 billion for the Chamber.

The Senate is for the Republicans to lose, which is a coda to the long reign of their party’s leader, Mitch McConnell from Kentucky. He recruited wealthy Republican candidates, many backed by Trump, to take on six Democratic incumbents facing tough re-elections.

In Montana, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester is in one of the nation’s tightest races that could hand control to Republicans. But the next six Senate races, including the “blue wall” races of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, are as tight as the presidential race in those states.

FILE – This photo combination shows, from left, U.S. Sen. Jon Tester and his opponent, Montana Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, during a debate in Missoula, Montana, on Sept. 30, 2024. (Ben Allan Smith/The Missoulian via AP, File)

But the landmark changes are adding new uncertainty to other Senate races, leaving Sen. Ted Cruz in a tight spot on defense in Republican-overwhelmed Texas where Democrat Republican Colin Allred noticed a surge of energy, including during Harris’ star-studded rally in Houston with hometown hero Beyoncé. Independent Nebraska Dan Osborne surprised Republicans in Nebraska when he tried to unseat GOP Sen. Deb Fischer.

FILE – This photo combination shows, from left, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in Oklahoma City on April 13, 2022, and Democratic opponent Rep. Colin Allred of Texas in Chicago on Aug. 22, 2024. (AP Photo Sue Ogrocki, left; and Paul Sancya, Files)

Oher, Republican Senate candidates stumbled.

In Ohio, Republican Bernie Moreno, who faces Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, submitted comments critical of suburban women who have made access to abortion a priority. Republican Tim Sheehy created offensive remarks about Native Americans, a key voting bloc in his race against Tester in Montana.

FILE – This photo combination shows, from left, Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, chairman of the Senate Banking and Housing Committee, in Washington, Dec. 7, 2022, and Republican opponent Bernie Moreno in Vandalia, Ohio, March 16, 2024. (AP Photo Mariam Zuhaib and AP Photo Jeff Dean, file)

Because Republicans have outsourced their get-out-the-vote efforts to new groups, including Elon Musk’s America PACcampaign committees had to face their own to ensure that people voted.

Davide Cuigini, a member of the Young Republicans working on the Moreno vote recount last weekend in Ohio, said: “Republicans are finally voting early, so that will make a difference.”

But energy on the Democratic side quickly increased when Harris replaced Biden on the Democratic ticket over the summer.

Democrat Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, who could make history with Lisa Blunt Rochester of Delaware as Black women in the Senate, hosted former President Barack Obama last week. Alsobrooks is running against Larry Hogan, a popular former governor.

FILE – This photo combination shows, from left, Democratic Maryland Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks in Chicago, Aug. 20, 2024, and Republican opponent, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan in Annapolis, Aug. 27, 2024. (AP Photo Erin Hooley, left ; and AP Photo Stephanie Scarbrough, file)

Democrats have seen a shift in views in several races, according to nonpartisan analysts in the House of Representatives. But others, in Alaska and an open seat in Michigan, lean Republican. Two members of the House the longest-serving members of parliament they take part in the struggles for political life in Ohio and California.

Still, an internal DCCC memo showed that a week before the election, 21 of the 25 contested seats were still close.

There are also some unusual battlegrounds, including what Nebraskans call the “blue dot” around Omaha, where Republican Don Bacon faces a challenge from Democrat Tony Vargas.

FILE – U.S. Rep. Don Bacon, R-Nebraska, speaks after a closed-door GOP meeting at the Capitol in Washington, Oct. 16, 2023. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

The outcome of the races will be a test of House leadership under Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. During a recent stop near Akron, Ohio, he said he knew that with “compelling GOP warriors” as candidates, they would win.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., speaks during an interview with The Associated Press at the Lucas County Republican Party headquarters in Holland, Ohio, Saturday, Oct. 26, 2024. A photo of former President Ronald Reagan is seen in the back. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

Jeffries, who is expected to become House speaker if Democrats take control, said he has decided “ keep calm ”, even if the possibility of unexpected events keeps him awake at night.

If both houses do reverse control of the party, as much as possible, it will be a rare occurrence.

The data shows that if Democrats take the House of Representatives and Republicans take the Senate, it will be the first time that both chambers of Congress have turned to opposing political parties.

“This election is a very important issue,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin of Maryland, who campaigned for a fellow Democrat in one of his state’s House elections.

Associated Press writers Lea Skene in Baltimore and Stephen Groves and Kevin Freking contributed to this report.

Originally published: November 2, 2024 at 10:56 am ET