Harris-Trump Poll: 2024 Election Remains Close Last Weekend and Electorate Disaffected

WASHINGTON — A depressed electorate spells the end of the 2024 presidential campaign: three-quarters of likely voters say the country is seriously going down the wrong track, six in 10 are dissatisfied with the candidate selection, and between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, The case was reported by ABC News.

In an ABC News/Ipsos poll from last weekend, Harris has 49% support among likely voters and Trump has 46%. Reflecting the country’s entrenched polarization, support for these candidates has not changed significantly since Harris replaced Joe Biden last summer.

Harris was +2 in early October, +4 (a slight lead) last week and +3 in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer’s research collaborators with field work according to Ipsos. This narrow three-point difference with Trump is consistent with the average gap between Democrats and Republicans in the last eight presidential elections, of which Democrats won the popular vote in seven. Either way, the result leaves wide scope for the whims of the Electoral College.

One reason for these results is early voting. As of Friday morning, 38% said they had already voted, with 56-38% choosing to vote for Harris. That compares with 62% to 33% among early voters last week, which is closer to that group than Democrats want.

Full results can be found in the PDF file.

Not happy

There is little satisfaction with the professions, the economy and the overall direction of the country. Seventy-four percent of likely voters say the country is seriously heading down the wrong track, the highest percentage right before the 2008 presidential election. This is what half of Harris’s supporters say, which is almost all, 98%, of Trump’s supporters.

The dissatisfaction partly reflects economic attitudes. Forty-two percent of likely voters say they are worse off financially than when Biden took office, compared with just 19% who are better off. The number of disadvantaged people remains at or near the highest level since 1986 throughout the year, reflecting the highest inflation seen in 40 years under Biden.

Here, the political divisions are particularly deep, emphasizing the connection between political and economic views. 78% of Trump supporters say their wealth has worsened under Biden. Among Harris supporters, only 8% go there.

On the other hand, in another dimension – satisfaction with the choice of candidates of the main parties – partisans find room for agreement. Sixty percent are dissatisfied with the choice of Harris or Trump, including 61% of Harris supporters and 57% of Trump supporters.

Good change/bad change

Dissatisfaction with the direction of a nation usually drives support for change. This works to Harris’s disadvantage as she tries to differentiate herself from the Biden administration: Thirty-four percent of likely voters believe that if elected, she would largely leave things as they are. Of the remaining 35%, they think it would change the situation in a good way; 31% in the bad sense of the word. (Among those who expect status quo from Harris, the race is 48-45%, Trump-Harris.)

In turn, in the case of Trump, much fewer people see him as maintaining the status quo – only 4% say he would leave everything as it is. However, more people think it would shake things up in a bad way (51%) than in a good way (45%).

Attributes

Harris outperforms Trump on personal favorability and outperforms him – albeit by single digits – in the personality and temperament needed to be an effective president.

She received an even split in favorability, 48-48% among likely voters. Trump is much deeper in personal disfavor, viewed favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 60%.

Another result softens the sting of Trump’s unfavorability: Among likely voters who view both him and Harris unfavorably (13% of all likely voters), Trump leads significantly in vote preferences (61-21%). (Among those who view only Trump unfavorably and not Harris, a minimal percentage – 2% – support him anyway. Among those who view only Harris unfavorably, no one supports her.)

When it comes to personality and temperament, 50% think Harris has what it takes to serve effectively, compared to 41% who say the same about Trump (including 4% who say they both have it skills themselves); 12% say no. As with favorability, Trump is chipping away at Harris’ advantage, leading (50-25%) among those who say neither has the personality and temperament to serve effectively. Moreover, of those who believe he does not have the personality and temperament to serve effectively, 11% still support him. (Harris is supported by 6% of those who say he does not have the right personality and temperament.)

Ground game

In such a tight race, the campaign’s final get-out-the-vote efforts could make the difference. Here, Harris has an advantage: Of all adults, 37% say they have been contacted by her campaign asking for a vote, compared to 33% for Trump. Among likely voters, the figure is 45%, down from 40%; and among likely voters in seven battleground states, a slim 67% compared with 61% – a huge level of contact.

What’s more, Harris’ GOTV efforts seem more targeted. Nationwide, of likely voters who support her, 56% say they have been contacted about her campaign. Fewer Trump supporters (49%) say his campaign has contacted them.

Groups

Estimates among likely Latino voters were stable in three of the last four ABC/Ipsos polls conducted in mid-September and early October and in this one, averaging 55-41% for Harris-Trump (54-39% in this poll). . Last week’s 64-34% percentage among likely Latino voters was different, although close to the 2020 exit poll result of 65-32%, Biden-Trump.

In any case, the latest results show no ill effects from the comedian’s controversial joke at last weekend’s Trump rally. It leaves open the question of where Latino voters go; an outperformance in this typically more Democratic group would be a coup for Trump, nationally and especially in the battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada.

The tightest competition among Latino voters in exit polls since 1976 was 58-40% in 2004; returning to it, much less improving it, would be a major outcome for the GOP, which urgently needed support from racial and ethnic minorities as they grew larger.

The results are similar among Latino men and women as was previously the case. The change from last week is particularly large among younger Latinos, although the sample size is small.

Voting preferences among likely voters in other groups are similar to those in previous ABC News/Ipsos polls, allowing for sampling error to be larger in smaller groups. Among them:

• • Harris, who tried to attract dissatisfied Republicans, has 7% support in this group, and Trump has 3% of Democrats. Harris also gains support from 11% of conservatives to Trump’s 4% among liberals.
• Independents – who have backed the winner in nine of the last 12 presidential elections – are currently +5 for Harris, 49-44%, although this is not a significant difference. Among independent women, Harris leads with 55-37%, while among independent men it is close to 49-45%, Trump-Harris.In these results, Harris has the support of 76% of Black men (Biden won 79% of this group in 2020) and 87% of Black women.
• The race is close – irrelevant Trump +4 – among white women 50-46%, in 2020 he won this group by 11 points. A Democrat hasn’t won against white women since 1996, though Al Gore came close in 2000. Trump leads white men by 13 points, 54-41%.
• Harris has an especially large advantage among women aged 18-29, 69-29%. For comparison, Trump’s +5 rating among men this age is 49-44%.
• Harris maintains a lead among suburban women (55-40%), while Trump-Harris competition remains slim among suburban men (49-46%).
• The gender gap among all likely voters is 16 points – not significant Trump +5 among men, 50-45%, Harris +11 among women, 53-42%. This is similar to the previous level and similar to the average (19 points) in exit polls since 1996.
• Trump has nearly identical leads among non-college white men (63-33%) and non-college white women (62-33%). Among all likely voters who do not have at least a four-year degree, Trump is +11 points (53-42%); among college graduates, Harris +22 (59-37%).
• In a group crucial to the Republicans’ prospects, Trump leads with 80-16% among white evangelical Protestants. Among all likely voters who are not white evangelical Protestants, Harris beats Trump (55-40%).
• The seven battleground states combined look like a nation: 49-46% in the Harris-Trump contest.

The results of this survey include the most prominent, active, minor-party candidates in the states where they are on the ballot. Of all likely voters, Libertarian Chase Oliver receives 1% support, Green Party candidate Jill Stein and independent Cornel West receive less than half a percent each, and “someone else” receives 2%.

Methodology

The ABC News/Ipsos poll was conducted online via the probability-based Ipsos KnowledgePanel from October 29-November. September 1, 2024, in English and Spanish, in a random nationwide sample of 3,140 adults, including 2,267 likely voters. Partisan splits among all adults are 29–29–30% among independent Democrats and Republicans, and 33–34–29% among likely voters.

The results have a margin sampling error of 2 percentage points, including design effects, for the full sample and for likely voters, and 5 points for likely voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Sampling error is not the only source of variation in polls.

The survey was prepared for ABC News by: Langer’s research collaboratorswith Ipsos sampling and data collection. See details of the ABC News survey methodology Here.