A powerful Russian division defeats Ukrainian paratroopers in Illinka

Advancing north from the ruins of Vuhledar, the powerful Russian 20th Motor Rifle Division – some 10,000 strong – attacks the 2,000-strong Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade, hoping the division’s numerical superiority will crush the exhausted paratroopers.

The Russians’ goal: to drive the Ukrainian brigade out of the village of Illinka, 30 km west of Donetsk, in the region of the same name. If Illinka and the surrounding settlements fell, Russian troops could move north and surround the Ukrainian garrison in Karakhov, a key location for Ukrainians’ defense of the southern Donetsk Oblast.

“The situation is close to critical” reported Kriegsforscher, a Ukrainian drone operator. The 79th Air Assault Brigade “is under (a) massive enemy attack” that began about two weeks ago.

The paratroopers and their supporting drone units shot down potentially dozens of Russian vehicles – first the brand new BMP-3s. And then, as the modern BMP-3s began to wear out, the older BMP-2s and MT-LBs.

The car massacre on the road towards Illinka contributed to increasing Russian losses to a record level. Analyst Andrew Perpetua counted on Saturday, an astonishing 206 destroyed, damaged and abandoned Russian vehicles. On the same day, he counted only 49 Ukrainian losses.

However, the Kremlin has discovered a winning strategy in a winning moment and is clearly willing to replace vehicles and soldiers in the territory.

The strategy is simple but effective, explained Ukrainian journalist Stanislav Aseyev. “The Russians continue to effectively use the ‘bag’ tactic, bypassing our positions on three sides and leaving a bottleneck for retreat” – Aseev he wrote. “As a result, even in combat-ready units, encirclement panic often occurs, leading to the withdrawal of troops.”

It doesn’t help Ukraine’s war effort that its forces are stretched to the east, trying to maintain control of their 270-mile salient in western Russia’s Kursk Oblast. This crucial issue, which Kiev may hope to use as a bargaining chip in any future peace negotiations, is coming under increasing pressure not only from Russian troops but also from thousands of North Korean reinforcements.

Kriegsforscher argued that the dozen or so Ukrainian battalions in Kursk, which include Kiev’s best soldiers and vehicles, would be more useful in Donetsk. “Even though we are losing so much ground in the Donetsk region, I ask myself: what am I doing in the Kursk region?”

“From the first day of the operation, I was strongly against it,” Kriegsforscher wrote. “My opinion hasn’t changed.”

The Ministry of Defense in Kiev is trying to form new brigades to strengthen the weakening front line. But the best of these brigades is still in training. And there there are not enough modern vehicles equip them all.

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