Here’s Who’s Winning the Latest Trump-Harris Presidential Polls – As Nate Silver, 538 Releases Final Projections

Top line

Vice President Kamala Harris overtook former President Donald Trump by the slimmest of margins in both presidential polling guru Nate Silver’s final projections and FiveThirtyEight’s final projections shortly after midnight Tuesday, though both projections had the race for the White House remaining a statistical tie on Election Day like both candidates survey numbers remained at an impasse in key swing states.

Kamala Harris shakes hands with Donald Trump during the presidential debate in Philadelphia … (+) September 10.

AFP via Getty Images

Key facts

Silver released his final forecast after running 80,000 race simulations using polling data and found that Harris had a 50.015% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 49.985% – essentially a tie – after something of a minor comeback for the Democrat, who fell 44% to 55% in beginning of November.

FiveThirtyEight too released his final prediction for the winner of the presidential race, giving Harris the smallest advantage with about a 50% chance of winning compared to Trump’s 49%.

Silver and FiveThirtyEight’s projections estimate the likelihood of either candidate winning and are separate from polls that estimate how many votes each candidate will receive – but many national and swing state polls also remain substantially related.

Harris leads Trump 49% to 48%, according to the latest data from likely voters HarrisX/Forbes polltaken between Wednesday and Friday and has a margin of error of one point, representing an increase of 50-48% in Ipsos poll also on Monday.

A widely followed Times/Siena poll released late last month showed Harris’s support declining since the newspaper’s previous poll in early October, in which she had a 49% to 46% lead over Trump, with the newspaper calling the results “not encouraging.” Harris as Democrats gained public support in the last election, even though they lost the White House.

Trump leads 48% to 46%. CNBC Poll registered voters published on October 24 (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47% to 45% in Wall Street Journal poll of registered voters conducted on October 23 (margin of error 2.5) – a change in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris was driving 47% to 45% in the magazine’s poll.

According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris has lost Trump’s lead over Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her lead has declined over the past two months, peaking at 3.7 points in late August. weighted average of polls.

Important reminder: Presidential polls have often been wrong

There is a lot of speculation about how wrong they are this year and who it might benefit. Read all about it in this story.

A large number

1.2 points. That’s Harris’ average lead over Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s rankings poll average. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics poll average shows Harris ahead by 0.1, and Nate Silver has Harris ahead by one point Silver Bulletin Forecast.

How does Harris fare against Trump in swing states?

Harris leads Michigan, Wisconsin AND Pennsylvaniaand Trump leads North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona AND Nevada– according to FiveThirtyEight’s average polls. That means Harris would win the Electoral College if polls in every swing state were fully accurate, but many of the seven swing states, including key Pennsylvania, have margins of less than one percentage point.

A surprising fact

Survey from NBC News released on September 29 showed that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll — conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 Latino registered voters — found 54% support Harris compared to 40% who support Trump and 6% who said they were unsure. who would they vote for? Harris’s support is higher than when Biden ran against Trump, NBC says, but is still significantly lower than previous leads for Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in polls in 2020 and a 50-point lead in polls in 2016 .The poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

How did the debate affect the polls?

Pre-debate research showed Harris’s polling growth leveled off, including NPR/PBS/Marist growth questionnaire registered voters, a Sept. 3-5 poll that showed Harris leading Trump 49% to 48%, up from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that a majority of respondents believed Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly influence the horse race between them. New York Times/Siena vote likely voters revealed on September 19 said that a majority of voters across all demographic groups had a favorable opinion of Harris’ performance in the September 10 debate, with 67% overall saying she performed well, compared to 40% who said the same about Trump. Harris’s numbers increased 52-46% among likely voters and 51-47% among registered voters in the survey ABC News/Ipsos poll days after the September 11-13 debate was essentially unchanged from her six-point lead with likely voters in end of August AND beginning of August ABC/Ipsos research – even though 63% of Americans said Harris won debate.

Key background

Biden it fell out race on July 21 after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He immediately approved Harris and she have announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly rallied around her, with 99% of Democratic delegates voting for her official nomination during a virtual roll call before the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris chose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance as his vice presidential candidate. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris’s poll surge is matched by an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which he has almost twice Since Harris entered the race, the percentage has jumped from 46% in June to 85% today, according to Monmouth University, while enthusiasm among Republicans has remained steady at 71%. vote released on August 14.