What to watch out for on Election Day as Harris and Trump square off

• Voting for the 2024 presidential elections will end in a few hours.
• Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have argued over Pennsylvania, but both candidates have multiple paths.
• Here’s what we’re looking for.

Election Day 2024 arrived. Billions have been spent urging voters to support specific candidates and causes.

Vice President Kamala Harris raised the issue presidential race with her late entry. Pre-election polls showed her race against former President Donald Trump could be the tightest in history. The margins are so tight that a potential polling error could cause an unexpected explosion.

More than 78 million Americans have already voted early, either in person or by mail. Final turnout may be down slightly from 2020’s historic levels, but Gallup’s pre-election poll showed voters enthusiasm higher than 2008 levels.

It’s not just about control of the White House. Congress is also up for grabs. Republicans are favorites to take back the Senate with key races taking place in favorable terrain. The room is more difficult to design. Republicans could pick up a few seats, and Democrats could flip the chamber with an equally slim majority. As in 2018, New York and California, which are not competitive in the presidential race, appear large.

Here’s what we’re watching.

If Trump or Harris wins the White House

Harris’ easiest path to victory remains what was once President Biden’s last resort: keeping Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District – the so-called “blue wall” and “Blue Dot.” Barring any unexpected upset, Harris will then win the Electoral College 270 to 268.

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Trump’s easiest path to victory also runs through Pennsylvania, the most important swing state. A victory in Pennsylvania would likely enable Trump to reclaim the White House by holding North Carolina and flipping Georgia. In such a scenario, he could even withstand the blow of losing votes in the Electoral College in Nebraska, which, according to pre-election polls, is very likely.

Even though so much attention has been paid to Pennsylvania, Trump has spent a lot of time in the race Last days in North Carolinaeven though only two Democrats since 1976, Presidents Obama and Carter, have won the Tar Heel State.

Here are the Warrior Counties worth watching.

Bucks County, Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro recently called this county in the Philadelphia metropolitan area “the most swinging of all swing counties in the swingiest of all swing states.” Hillary Clinton won the Bucks by less than 3,000 votes in 2016 and lost both the state and the White House. President Biden won it four years ago by just over 17,000 votes, en route to taking his home territory by a margin of about 80,000 votes. If Trump wants to take back Pennsylvania, success here is key.

Waukesha County, Wisconsin: This area of ​​suburban Milwaukee County, once a traditional GOP turf, has moved closer to Democrat-like suburbs across the country during the Trump era. Trump routed Clinton here in 2016, but his lead fell by just over 7 points four years later when he lost the state by about 21,000 votes to Biden.

Maricopa County, Arizona: In 2020, the seat of Phoenix, the nation’s fastest-growing county, shifted toward Democrats by just over 2 points. President Biden won the state by only about 10,000 votes. In contrast, then-Gov. Doug Ducey, a popular Republican, had won the county by nearly 14 points two years earlier.

Here’s what early exit polls can tell us:

Exit polls will show the first major to vote in the early evening after the embargo lifts at 5 p.m. ET, although detailed data on who might win in a given state will be withheld until polls close in that area.

While exit polls can provide valuable data, particularly on demographics, they are often misleading and cannot predict the ultimate winner.

Mark Blumenthal, a contractor at YouGov and former head of voter polls at SurveyMonkey, told Business Insider that he will be interested in how the gender and racial vote breakdowns ultimately end up, especially given speculation that Democrats are losing support among Black voters and Latino.

Overall, however, he cautions against over-analyzing exit polls on election night itself. “To find out who wins, my advice is to ignore them between the time they start being released, which is usually tomorrow at 5 p.m. ET, and the time the final count is made,” Blumenthal said. “Completely ignore them. Go for a walk. Go to a yoga class, watch something on Netflix, because they are not intended to tell us who will win the presidential election.”

Republicans are favored to regain control of the Senate.

Michigan: Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is trying to keep open the Senate seat that her Democratic colleagues have held for 20 years. Former congressman Mike Rogers, a one-time Trump critic, hopes the former president will push him to the top. Rogers and his allies have focused on Slotkin’s support for White House fuel efficiency standards, which do not mandate electric vehicle production but would likely cause the auto industry to produce more electric vehicles. Pre-election polls: Slotin rose about 3 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average

Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, has managed to weather past challenges in a former swing state that is now tilting toward Republicans. His rival, Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno, has criticized Brown over immigration. According to AdImpact, the Ohio Senate race is the most expensive non-presidential race in history. Pre-election polls: Moreno rose by less than 1 point, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

Montana: Democrat Sen. Jon Tester faces an even tougher challenge in Montana, a state where Trump won by more than 16 points in 2020. Republicans have worked hard to achieve this Tim Sheehya wealthy airline executive, even though expectations for the bruised right-winger fell short. Like other GOP candidates, Sheehy did everything he could to link Harris to Tester. Pre-election polls: Sheehy was up 6.5 points, according to the RealClearPolitics average.

Home is much closer.

Arizona’s 1st District: Libertine. Dawid Szwejkerta Republican, he has represented Scottsdale and the surrounding area in Congress for almost 14 years. Gov. Katie Hobbs and Sen. Mark Kelly easily won the area, one of the most educated districts still controlled by Republicans. His rival, former state Republican Amish Shah, has emphasized his centrist record and hopes Trump’s unpopularity will sink Schweikert.

New York 19: Rep. Marc Molinaro was one of four Republicans who flipped a Democrat-held seat in the 2018 New York midterms, a margin that proved crucial to the GOP winning back the chamber. Democrats hope Josh Riley, a lawyer and political analyst, will win a rematch two years later with help from Harris at the top of the field. More than $35 million was spent on the race, making it the most expensive House contest in the country.

California 22: Rep. David Valadao is one of 18 House Republicans representing the district won by President Biden in 2020. Valadao is also one of two remaining House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump following the January 6 riot at the Capitol. Former state Rep. Rudy Salas, like many Democrats, is in key races and hopes to win a comeback after losing two years ago.