Forecasts of spreads and final results

After a terrible performance against the Warriors, the Hawks could really use a rebound today against the Bulls. The Warriors jumped out to a 41-22 lead in the first quarter and never looked back. The Hawks offense didn’t show up and was unable to catch up with the Warriors, and Atlanta’s record dropped to 7-9.

Tonight is not only an important game for their NBA Cup hopes – it’s also an opportunity to respond to the opponent they handled in their last matchup. When these teams played on November 9, Atlanta controlled the game for most of the game before Chicago stormed in and won the game after wearing down the Hawks late in the game. The Bulls continued their 14-3 scoring run, ending with the Bulls winning and sealing a 125-113 loss that was simply hard to watch. In their last meeting, Chicago also won the game, mainly due to team-based scoring. Their entire starting lineup finished with double-digit points and a positive plus/minus. Ayo Dosomnu also made a huge impression off the bench, scoring 19 points on 7-10 shooting.

Atlanta’s lack of consistency in play has been a problem throughout the season. Against Golden State, they had a terrible first quarter. The Hawks shot 35% from the field and 29% from three. Golden State, meanwhile, shot 60% from the field and 46% from three. The Warriors bench outscored the Hawks bench 19-3. However, this match was more of a fluke in terms of how bad they started. That being said, they have consistently struggled in the clutch. This year, they have the tenth-fewest points in the third quarter and the fifth-fewest points in the fourth quarter.

Heading into tonight’s game, the Hawks rank 11th in the NBA in PPG, 19th in FG%, 18th in 3PA, 19th in 3P%, 4th in FTA, 25th in turnovers and 11th in rebounds . For Glass cleaningAtlanta ranks 18th in points per 100 possessions, 19th in successful field goal percentage, 21st in turnover percentage, 9th in offensive rebounding percentage and 7th in free throw rate. Defensively, they rank 28th in PPG allowed, 15th in field goal percentage allowed, 30th in three-point shooting percentage allowed, and 30th in three-point shooting percentage allowed. According to Cleaning the Glass, Atlanta ranks 19th in points per 100 possessions and 26th in effective field goal percentage.

The Bulls have a fairly simple team profile – they shoot a lot of threes and make a lot of threes, without really excelling in other areas. They rank 10th in PPG, 16th in FG%, 3rd in three-point attempts, 10th in three-point percentage, 25th in free throw attempts, 9th in rebounds and 21st in turnovers. According to Per Cleaning the Glass, Chicago ranks 23rd in points per 100 possessions, 12th in effective field goal percentage, 19th in turnover percentage, 28th in offensive rebound percentage and 27th in field goal percentage free. Defensively, the Bulls rank 29th in PPG allowed, 29th in field goal percentage allowed, 22nd in three-point field goals allowed and 5th in three-point shooting percentage allowed. According to Cleaning the Glass, Chicago ranks 25th in points per 100 possessions and 23rd in effective field goal percentage.

Even though the Bulls have an exploitable defense, the Hawks will need a strong performance from Trae Young to accelerate the game. Young hasn’t looked like himself as a scorer this year. In his last two games against the Kings and Warriors, he scored a combined 19 points on 5-19 shooting despite playing over 30 minutes in both games. This year he is averaging 21.9 points (the lowest result since his debut year) and shooting a career-worst 34.1% from long range. Fortunately, he is still one of the best point guards in the NBA and recorded double-digit assists in those same games, which alleviated some of the effects of his scoring decline. In a game where he has a full rotation at his disposal, I expect him to continue to shine as a playmaker while benefiting from better spacing.

Despite the defeat, Jalen Johnson recorded another double-double (15 points, 14 rebounds), hitting three of five attempts from deep. He did great at the beginning of the season in Atlanta and I think this could be a big game for him. Chicago doesn’t really have a good answer to slowing him down. Torrey Craig is a good rotation winger, but Johnson should be clearly favored in this matchup.

As for Chicago slowing down, Dyson Daniels will likely spend a lot of time with Zach LaVine. This should be a good opportunity to bounce back. While he’s had a phenomenal season so far and looks likely to make the All-Defensive team if healthy, he didn’t have a spectacular night against the Warriors. Daniels didn’t have a steal and was unable to slow down Curry, who scored 23 points and eight assists on 7-10 from the field. It should be a little easier against LaVine, but not much. The Bulls star enters the game averaging 22 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.2 assists while shooting a blistering 43.2% from deep on eight attempts per game. He has been absolutely incredible from deep this year and Daniels will be a huge contributor to slowing him down.

The strong performances of DeAndre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic on offense will be key in this rotation to take advantage of the Bulls’ leaky defense. Bogdanovic hasn’t quite hit his stride as a low-light scorer yet, but tonight will be a great opportunity to get three. Hunter has been outstanding as a scorer this season, hitting 38% of his six attempts per day. His length and defensive instincts are also important for Atlanta on the other end of the court. If both play well against Chicago, I expect it to be a relatively easy win for the Hawks.

If the Hawks need a spark tonight, I really think this could be the Larry Nance game. He may stretch Vucevic a bit, as he demands attention as a scorer and provides strong rebounding in any lineup he is in. Both will be helpful against the Bulls and will make things easier for the Hawks.

According to Fanduel SportsbookAtlanta is a 1.5-point favorite over the Bulls today with a total of 246 points.

The Hawks have a fully healthy team, and this will be an important game for their NBA Cup chances. I think Atlanta’s combination of offensive firepower in Young, Johnson, Bogdanovic, and Hunter/Risacher is quite a mismatch for Chicago. If Daniels manages to limit LaVine to less than 25 points with poor efficiency, the Bulls will be in trouble. The only difference between this game and the last time these teams met that I think will be significant is the absence of Patrick Williams from Team Chicago. Without Williams, Johnson doesn’t have a consistent defensive option and I expect this to be a big game for him. Young will continue to get assists even if he has another scoreless night, but I wouldn’t really expect that trend to continue against Chicago’s exploitable defense. It won’t be easy to hold the Bulls to a three-point lead, and it certainly could get hot, but I think Atlanta still has a slight advantage. The Warriors’ ability to shoot well from three and the number of attempts they attempt poses a huge threat to the Hawks. Whether it’s Curry, Hield or Brandin Pod Ziemia, they have a deep pool of players who can get carried away against a team that is dead last in three-point attempts allowed and three-point percentage allowed. For this reason, I think the Hawks will win and I really think they can cover.

Final prediction: Hawks 122, Bulls 117