Purdue vs. Marshall prediction, odds, pick for College Basketball

Trying to rebound from its first loss this year, Purdue (4-1) returns home Saturday to face Marshall (3-1) at Mackey Arena. It’s time to continue our college basketball odds number with Purdue-Marshall prediction and selection.

As the No. 6 ranked team in the nation, Purdue’s loss to Marquette does not change their status as title contenders. Instead, the Boilermakers are looking to improve to 5-1 in West Lafayette, where they are undefeated this year.

The traveling Thunder Pack will hit the road for the first time this season. They last faced Bellarmine on November 16, defeating the Knights by 19.

This is Purdue-Marshall College Basketball OddsCourtesy of FanDuel

College Basketball Odds: Purdue-Marshall Odds

Purdue: -19.5 (-120)

Moneyline: -4500

Marshall: +19.5 (-102)

Moneyline: +1600

Over: 149.5 (-110)

Under: 149.5 (-110)

How to watch Purdue vs. Marshall

Time: noon ET/9:00 a.m. PT

Television: Big Ten Network

Stream: FuboTV (Free trial period)

Why Purdue will cover the spread/win

After four non-conference games, Marshall is 3-1 on the year, but just 2-1 against Division I teams. Both Division I teams they beat didn’t win this year. The Herd can score points offensively, but they struggle defensively after giving up 90 points to Toledo in their lone loss. They knock down opponents at a rapid pace, but they also clear the ball 11.5 times per game, and many of them are unforced.

Marshall’s defense looks good, but the opposition needs to be factored into the equation. The number that jumps out at me is 115 free throws made in just four games, which is the 11th worst total in the country. Led by junior forward Trey Kaufman-Renna, Purdue loves to hit the rocks and slow down the pace. By sticking to this game plan, the Boilermakers were able to score a lot of easy points in the lane.

Why Marshall will cover the spread/win

Purdue is still adjusting to life without Zach Edey and Lance Jones; two of the top three scorers on the team from last year. In their struggles, they have become a defensive-minded, slow team that ranks 291st in the country in possessions per game. When they play at their level, they can beat teams like Alabama. But when they gain momentum, they can turn the ball over 15 times, just like they did against Marquette.

It seems like a distant memory, but it wasn’t that long ago that Purdue scored 84 points and narrowly edged out Yale. If the Bulldogs hadn’t allowed the Boilermakers to connect on 48 percent of their threes, things might have been different. While Purdue has looked at times, it’s still just 2-3 ATS on the year. Marshall is the second-fastest team Purdue will face this year and can’t let the Boilermakers dictate the pace if they want to cause an upset. In the two games where they struggled the most – Marquette and Yale – Purdue allowed both teams to make more than 10 field goals than they did.

Purdue-Marshall final prediction and pick

Marshall would be wise to pick up the pace given Purdue’s past struggles in this regard, but the Herd is shooting below 30 percent from distance on the year. This is extremely discouraging considering their opposition on this issue. In this era of college basketball, it’s difficult to create big situations without a constant three-point threat.

The way Purdue performed against Marquette is a concern for their title aspirations, but for now it’s a great opportunity to even the odds. Even excluding the Marquette game, Purdue hasn’t looked great so far and has only won one game by more than 19 points this year. They won’t be as good as they were in 2023-24, but Marshall doesn’t have the size or strength to match Purdue’s interior attack, nor does he have enough speed or shooting to threaten them in transition.

Final Purdue-Marshall Prediction and Pick: Purdue -19.5 (-120), Under 149.5 (-110)