Three reasons why the Eagles will cruise to victory over the Packers

Thinking aloud about Sunday’s Eagles vs. Packers wild card matchup…

The Packers have a path to victory here. These are not the Giants from a few years ago. Green Bay has a head coach who can set a game plan, a quarterback who can throw downfield and a defense that finished the regular season in the top six in points, yards and turnovers. It’s a tougher matchup than a No. 2 seed would typically expect in the wild-card round.

That said…

At minus-4.5 odds heading into Friday night, the Eagles are the third-biggest weekend favorite, behind the Ravens (minus-9.5 over the Steelers) and Bills (minus-8.5 over the Broncos). That’s a suggested winning percentage of around 69%. Which honestly seems a bit low considering what we know about these teams.

1. Jordan Love is a wild card, even when healthy.

The Packers quarterback is one of the most disparate players in the league. During the regular season, he was one of only three quarterbacks in the league, along with Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson, to complete more than 12 passes for more than 40 yards. However, he completed just 63.1% of his passes overall, tying him with Will Levis and ranking 31st out of 39 qualifying quarterbacks. His tendency to throw his back foot is evidenced by his poor shooting percentage of 73.2. The only quarterbacks to finish with a lower rating: Anthony Richardson, Cooper Rush, Jameis Winston, Aidan O’Connell, Dak Prescott, Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, Caleb Williams and Mason Rudolph.

The Eagles’ defense requires the quarterback to be accurate. Love simply doesn’t have that consistency, who is at his best when the Packers aren’t asking too much of him. He had 10 interceptions in the first seven games of the season, averaging 34.3 pass attempts per game. He has just one interception in his last eight starts, averaging 23.1 pass attempts per game. In fact, Love hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 11, which is 173 attempts without a pick. The Packers will probably have to air it on Sunday. This is a completely different Eagles defense than the one that allowed Josh Jacobs & Co. in Week 1. for 163 yards.

This doesn’t bode well for either Love or the Packers. Remember that even though Love had good stretches last season, Love’s two interceptions in the last 17 minutes and 18 seconds of the game in a divisional-round loss to the 49ers were a major reason why the Packers were unable to finish the game.

2. The Eagles are much more experienced in combat than the Packers, who have lost five of seven games against playoff teams.

Among the top five teams Super Bowl odds, only the Bills had a losing record against playoff teams in the regular season. However, Buffalo’s three losses were accompanied by two signature victories: 48-42 over the Lions and 30-21 over the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Ravens (7-3), Chiefs (7-2), Lions (6-2) and Eagles (4-2) had a combined record of 24-9 against the rest of the postseason field.

How close was the Packers to a signature victory with a 38-10 win over the 49ers in Week 12? They beat the Rams in Week 5 when Los Angeles was without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. They beat the Texans in Week 7. However, they went 0-4 against Detroit and Minnesota, and also lost in Week 1 to the Eagles.

In Week 17, the Packers lost 20-3 and 27-10 to the Vikings before scoring multiple late touchdowns. Minnesota actually outscored Green Bay 55-17 in the first three quarters of both matchups. Likewise, the Lions started the fourth quarter with a 24-6 lead in their first game of the season. The Packers gave them a game at Ford Field in early December, losing 34-31 on Jake Bates’ 35-yard field goal as the clock hit zero. But it was also a Thursday night.

3. While Jaire Alexander is absent, opposing receivers will play.

Love took a lot of credit for the Packers’ surprising performance last season, when they blew out the Cowboys in the wild-card game, then gave the 49ers everything they could handle in the divisional round before losing on a Christian McCaffrey touchdown run, 1:07 left.

But let’s not forget about Alexander, one of the few elite corners in today’s NFL. In the victory over the Cowboys, the 27-year-old All-Pro played a big role in holding CeeDee Lamb to two catches and 18 yards in the first two quarters of a game that Green Bay led 27-7 at halftime. Dak Prescott was 2 of 6 with two steals when targeting Lamb, and Alexander picked up one of those two picks.

Against the 49ers, the Packers held Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, who combined for five catches and 56 yards on eight targets.

Alexander will not be on the field for Sunday’s game against the Eagles due to a season-ending knee injury. He was a central figure in the Week 1 matchup, picking up passes while also allowing long ones AJ Brown completion. In addition to those 67 yards, Brown caught four passes for 52 yards.

The Packers were 10-10 over the past two seasons when Alexander was not in the lineup.

After Sunday it should be 10-11.

The Eagles play in the wild card round of the NFL playoffs against the Green Bay Packers. Join Eagles team reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they analyze the team’s hottest storylines in Central matchlive from Lincoln Financial Field.