NFL Conference Championship Props pop – rules the weekends

Welcome to the round-robin edition of Run Conference Championships that pop. Liz Loza carried us last week, going 2-1 with bets. Thank God she was here because I had a terrible weekend.

Not only did my props go 0-3, but my Detroit Lions lost to Washington last week in our first playoff game. It was stunning. After going 15-2 in the regular season, the Lions’ best mark in their history, we lost in our first and only playoff game. At home no less.

And then Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was hired as the new head coach of the Chicago Bears. Team in the division! I don’t want to face his crime twice a year. Don’t get me wrong, I’m excited for him. There aren’t many coaching positions available in the NFL, so when the window is open and you flourish as a coach, you have to take what’s available. Fortunately for him, and to the deluge of Lions fans, that job is on Chicago’s young and talented roster. But good luck to Ben in his new role. I wish him nothing but success in 15 of his 17 games next season.

That made it quite a difficult weekend. Fortunately, it’s a blank slate this weekend and we’re bringing the winners to the table. So without further adieu, here’s the Championship Edition of Playoff Props that pop! — Daniel Dopp

All chances on publication time. For latest odds visit ESPN BET.

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Quarterback props

Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 ints (-105)

Osier: It took him a minute to round into form with the Kansas City Chiefs, but Mahomes has played virtually error-free for about a season. Nine of his 11 interceptions came in the first two months of the 2024 campaign. He hasn’t thrown a pick since Week 11, when he recorded two INTs – against the Buffalo Bills.

Buffalo excelled in generating takeaways, logging 16 in the regular season (tied for fifth). Bobby Babich’s crew struggled to get pressure Lamar Jackson In the second half of last week’s game, but the Bills still picked off one of his passes, which is impressive considering Jackson only recorded four INTs (second fewest) in the regular season. In a tight forward/backline matchup, he’s expected to put up a solid number of fly attempts (Mahomes’ pass attempts are 36.5), the chance of being drafted, especially considering the odds, is worth the bet.

Josh Allen longest rush over 12.5 yards (-130)

Osier: It’s no secret that Steve Spagnuolo loves to pick the blitz. This often creates an atmosphere where QBs try to escape and spread out. Kansas City’s defense allowed the fifth-highest rushing attempts (88) per QBS and gave up the seventh-highest rushing yards (434) this season. Although the Chiefs allowed 15-yard rushes of over 13 yards (seven), the longest one came courtesy of … Josh Allen (26-yard TD rush).

Allen has posted a career-high eight rushes of 15 yards or more this season, including the postseason. Over 10% of these runs (8 of 77) came against the Chiefs. The Bettors need him to rush just 13 yards to cash out the above prop. This seems likely, especially when noting he averaged 31 yards per game during the regular season. Here’s a vintage Allen performance and victory at The Over!

Jayden Daniels Over 286.5 passing + rushing yards (-115)

DOPP: Daniels has been incredible on so many levels this season. Daniels rushed for 891 yards, the most yards by a rookie QB and the ninth most by a QB in NFL history. If that wasn’t enough, Daniels completed 69% of his passes and threw only nine interceptions. The Washington freshman also threw for over 3,500 yards and 25 passing TDs while unlocking Terry McLaurin.

Daniels has reached that line in each of his last full games. (He only played a handful of snaps in a meaningless Week 18 game that was expected, so I’m not counting it towards that statistic.) He’s had at least nine carries in five of the last six games, and I’m expecting him to be heavily involved in the run game again .

Daniels recently played for the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 16, finishing with 258 yards and 81 yards rushing to give him 339 passing + rushing yards. I’m not sure if the Commanders are winning on Sunday, but I know Daniels will use all of his skills to get his team on the field. That’s why I take it here.

Runaway props

Austin Ekeler Over 46.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)

DOPP: If Washington wins this weekend, one of the guys it needs is Ekeler. The running back has been a consistent option for Daniels this year, logging two or more catches in 13 of 14 games this season (including the playoffs) and gaining at least 20 yards on eight of them. Including the first two weeks of the playoffs, Ekeler is averaging 62.4 scrimmage yards per game, which is well north of the line we’re trying to hit.

I know Philadelphia has been good against countering runs, specifically keeping them out of the end zone. But I think the Eagles are dominant against the Commanders, putting Washington in a similar position to putting the Lions last week. And that would mean that Ekeler should have his number called several times to help maintain the entities. I would play it to 49.5 rushing + receiving yards, but wouldn’t go beyond the 50-yard mark.

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Wide receiving props

A. J. Brown Over 69.5 yards (+105)

Osier: Brown hasn’t passed for more than 36 yards on three straight contests. But I’m buying the Over in a game with huge stakes (and a projected point of 47.5). Jalen hurts I tried to get the ball to his No. 1 against the Los Angeles Rams, attacking Brown a team-high seven times last week. The 27-year-old receiver said the snow threw off his vibe, limiting him to a 2-14-0 stat line. Whether or not that’s true, conditions in Philly are expected to be flake-free Sunday.

Coverage conditions are also friendly as Marshon Lattimore he has struggled since returning from a hamstring problem. Lattimore allowed five receptions on seven targets for 73 yards and a touchdown (along with a 144.6 passer rating) during Washington’s postseason series. Brown should remain the focus of Philly’s offense, especially with vulnerable secondary leaders. He also cleared the above line the last time he faced Washington in Week 16. This tilt portends a lot of “internal excellence” and bountiful rebounding for Brown.

Hollywood Brown Over 39.5 yards (-105)

DOPP: Last week was a major blow to Bettors’ confidence in Brown after he delivered a two-way, zero-scoring performance in the divisional round against the Houston Texans. But that’s why I’m more optimistic this week. Last week, Brown’s goose egg lowered the line for the Bettors this week, and I’m not complaining about it. Secondly, I don’t think he was cut two weeks in a row. It may not seem like it, but he is becoming a bigger part of the offense, from 27% of snaps in Week 16 to 43% of snaps in Week 17 to 64% of snaps last week. He’s playing harder than ever and has already topped that line twice in Weeks 16 and 17.

I don’t let last week deter me. I think this line should be closer to 44.5 or 49.5, so I’ll happily take it at 39.5. I know Mahomes likes to spread him out, so I target one of the lower receivers instead of receiving Travis Kelce Or Xavier Worthy. Buffalo has allowed the QB to complete over 70% of its passes this year, the highest mark in the NFL. And if there’s one thing Mahomes knows how to do, It’s a flop like an NBA player to draw a flag He uses his arm to find open guys. I’m over.

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