The higher education bubble is finally bursting

The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center, which monitors higher education enrollment, released the report latest issues last week for the fall 2024 semester. The data shows a slow but massive shift in society’s approach to postsecondary education that could destroy the reputation and institutional strength of traditional four-year college attendance.

It is no secret that the number of people willing to pursue higher education is decreasing. The largest annual decline in recent years occurred in 2020, when the Covid-19 pandemic impacted the college decisions of a large group of high school seniors, causing a nearly 10% drop in enrollment. Student enrollment has increased slightly since then, but is still lower than in 2019. With new data for fall 2024, one wonders if it will ever reach that level again.

Freshman enrollment at four-year colleges and universities is down 5% this year, new data shows. The numbers are preliminary and will not be released until January, but the decline is real and measurable and can be attributed to a variety of factors, some of which can be easily remedied, while others will be much more difficult to reverse.

Regardless of the external factors that may have contributed to or accelerated the decline, the numbers make one thing clear: the public believes that the value of a college education has declined. Promised returns on investment are increasingly failing to materialize, creating conditions for the bursting of a higher education bubble that has been built by student debt and government meddling.

The FAFSA fails

Cost is one of the most important factors for high school seniors who decide to attend college. For many institutions, the price of a four-year degree is astronomical. Most students need financial aid in the form of scholarships or grants, as well as some loans, to afford college.

Fall 2024 freshmen had the dubious distinction of being the first to apply to college in the year the Department of Education’s Office of Federal Student Aid reviewed the Free Application for Federal Student Aid.

The launch of the simplified application was delayed by three months and encountered technical difficulties, which resulted in students who completed the application not receiving their financial aid letters on time. The Biden-Harris administration is entirely to blame for this failure because it put the cancellation of illegal and unconstitutional student debt ahead of the congressionally mandated FAFSA update. There is no doubt that this delay has made it more difficult for prospective students to decide which college they want to attend, or whether they go there at all.

This year, the grim picture has improved little. The FAFSA program usually opens on October 1, but the Department of Education has already announced there will be a two-month delay, marking a repeat of the delays that plagued the application process last year. As the next application cycle brings more and more incompetence, it’s no surprise that more and more students and their parents want nothing to do with it.

Is a college education worth a loan?

Even if a student successfully made it through FAFSA 2024 hell, they still had to decide whether to take out thousands of dollars in loans to get a four-year degree. As the student loan crisis spirals out of control, more and more students are coming to the conclusion that taking on a lot of debt before starting their adult careers is obviously not a wise investment.

Total federal student loan debt exceeds $1.6 trillion. This money is owed to approximately 40 million people, or more than one in ten people in the United States. The average borrower owes approximately $39,000 in federal student loan balance, representing a serious impediment to an entire generation’s ability to accumulate wealth and secure a successful financial future. The federal student loan program made the problem worse by encouraging colleges to raise tuition rates. More money chasing static supply drives up prices.

It was inevitable that more and more high school graduates and their parents would look at the cost of going to college and decide it simply wasn’t worth it. The latest enrollment numbers prove this.

A report by the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center shows that while the number of first-year bachelor’s students has fallen, 7% more young people are choosing short-term qualification programs instead. Moreover, the total number of students enrolled in bachelor’s degrees has actually increased, driven primarily by high school students entering dual programs and first-year students enrolling in four-year degrees.

In other words, students are desperately looking for ways to further their education and build successful careers without being up to their eyeballs in debt before taking their first full-time paid job.

For higher education institutions, this sour approach to studies couldn’t come at a worse time. In the fall of 2026, enrollment in higher education will likely peak before experiencing a steep decline that will last several decades. This is due to the simple fact that since 2008 people have had fewer and fewer children. The class of 2026 is the last class before we hit the demographic cliff. Subsequently, enrollment numbers will decline year over year for the foreseeable future.

With student enrollment in higher education already declining, many small colleges are likely to fail and fall as a result of the demographic divide. Larger schools will be forced to raise tuition rates even further or reduce student enrollment to account for the fact that fewer students simply want to attend their colleges.

Suitable fate

Colleges and universities only have themselves to blame. By attracting millions of students, higher education institutions have created the conditions for their own demise. The economic bubble inflated by high tuition rates that created a huge debtor class was not a viable long-term program, nor did it involve the stature of leftist partisanship.

Radical, progressive politics have been woven into the fabric and weft of the college experience, prompting more students and families to question and even look at the relationship between the cost and value of the education provided. Coincidentally or not, a small group of conservative colleges in the country he saw continued growth in enrollment and interest, even as legacy institutions with huge brands and leftist reputations suffered.

Nothing better illustrates this divide than the fact that next week a majority of college graduates will vote for Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party, while a majority of non-college-educated voters will vote for former President Donald Trump and the Democratic Party. Republican Party. If Trump wins re-election, the places that will show the most noisy and unpleasant anger in the wake of his triumph will undoubtedly be college campuses, as they did in 2016.

As an institutional force, higher education has never attempted to face the fact that it is deeply and dangerously disconnected from the average person. Despite this, he encourages more and more people to go to college, believing that a four-year degree is the only path to a successful career, and thanks to this he managed to rake in billions of dollars from students and taxpayers. She raised prices, scaring away potential customers.

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The persistent decline in admissions in recent years has sounded five alarm bells for colleges and universities because it threatens their financial streams and their status in a national consciousness that has largely accepted as gospel the idea that a college degree is a sure ticket to success and that everyone should pursue it. endeavor. As fewer and fewer students attend college, higher education’s status as a decisive cultural and economic force is at risk.

It will take several more years for the higher education bubble to shrink and shrink. But if fewer students go to college, more high school graduates will be freed from the shackles of student loan debt and the stifling political agenda that has infected the campus quad. The nation will be better off for it.

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