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Here’s who’s ahead in Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election polls.

Here’s who’s ahead in Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election polls.

Top line

Vice President Kamala Harris has a slim lead over former President Donald Trump in Wisconsin, according to three new polls released in recent days, but polling averages show Trump has narrowed Harris’ lead in the key swing state, making it a virtual tie smaller than it was a week before Election Day.

Key facts

Harris’ share among likely Marquette Law School voters increased 50% to 49%. vote released Wednesday (4.4-point margin of error), which includes undecided voters leaning toward one candidate, showing Trump significantly narrowed the six-point lead Harris had in the school’s rankings previous survey released on October 2.

Harris has a larger lead 51%-45% in CNN/SSRS pollwill also be eliminated on Wednesday (margin of error 4.8 points).

Harris has a 50-47% lead over Trump in the cooperative election survey questionnaire published this week, part of a nationwide survey of universities by YouGov (1,542 respondents).

Trump holds a slim, one-point lead in Emerson College vote likely voters were released Thursday (margin of error 3.4), while two other polls conducted last week have the candidates in the same position: Quinnipiac vote which meant they both had 48% support and Bloomberg/Morning Consult vote which shows Trump increased by 48.3-48%.

Harris has a three-point lead, 50% to 47%, in the Washington Post-Schar school vote likely voters published last week (margin of error 4.6) and the Wall Street Journal from early October vote showed that among registered voters this percentage is 48%.

Most polls in Wisconsin – whose 10 electoral votes could prove crucial – show the race to be a close one, with Harris leading by just 0.3 points in FiveThirtyEight’s rankings weighted average.

Voter turnout in Wisconsin could be high in November as the state hosts several competitive U.S. House races and Republicans are in a tight fight to maintain majority control of the state Assembly, Anthony Chergosky, assistant professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-La. Crosse he said WUWM Public Radio in Milwaukee.

Dwindling support for Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin in the Wisconsin Senate race is also seen as a warning sign for Democrats, as Cook’s political report moved the state from a slim Democrat to a tie last week after she found an advantage over Republican Eric Hovde, she has shrunk from seven points to two since August, although a Marquette Law School poll, also released last week, still showed her with a seven-point lead.

Biden won Wisconsin by less than a point in 2020, flipping the state after Trump defeated Hillary Clinton there in 2016; former President Barack Obama won the state by a landslide in both 2008 and 2012.

Tangent

Republicans control both the state Assembly and the Senate in Wisconsin, and Democrat Tony Evers holds the governor’s office.

Key background

Trump closed the gap in the polls after Harris led him in most polls conducted in the weeks after she replaced Biden at the top of the polls in July, according to polls that show the race between Harris and Trump is virtually tied. Wisconsin is among seven swing states likely to determine the winner of the 2024 election, along with Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia. Winning the three “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin is widely considered Harris’s clearest route to 270 electoral votes, assuming she also wins all the other states Biden won in 2020.

Further reading

2024 Elections Swing State Polls: Trump Maintains Lead in Arizona While Harris Has a Slight Lead in Pennsylvania (Update) (Forbes)

Trump vs. Trump Harris Polls 2024: Harris, Trump virtually tied in latest polls as race tightens (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Pennsylvania Polls 2024: Harris leads in latest poll in key Swing state (Forbes)

Trump-Harris Michigan Polls 2024: Harris Leads in Latest Poll (Forbes)

Georgia Trump-Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Has Surprising 1-Point Lead in New Poll (Forbes)

Trump-Harris North Carolina Polls 2024: Trump overtakes Harris lead (Forbes)