Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch will be crowned Tory leader today – but the winner of the contest will face a difficult task

The name of the next leader of the Conservative Party will be announced today after the second round of Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick.

The winner will replace Rishi Sunak as opposition leader after he led the party to a crushing election defeat in July, losing almost two-thirds of its MPs.

His successor faces the difficult task of rebuilding the Tory party after years of division, scandal and economic turmoil that crushed Labor from power.

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Voting ended Thursday for tens of thousands of party members who had to join at least 90 days ago. Both candidates say the result will be close.

The Conservatives don’t reveal how many members the party has, but in 2022 the number was about 172,000, and research suggests they are disproportionately wealthy, older white men.

Both candidates are perceived as right-wingers. Kemi BadenochThe 44-year-old former trade secretary was born in London to middle-class Nigerian parents but spent most of her childhood in Lagos.

Returning to the UK at the age of 16, she stayed with a family friend while taking her A-levels and talked about the time she worked at McDonald’s as a teenager.

She studied computer science at the University of Sussex and then worked as a software engineer before entering London politics in 2017 and becoming the MP for Saffron Walden in Essex.

Ms Badenoch prides herself on being outspoken and said the Conservatives lost because “they spoke well and governed from the left”. However, critics perceive her as abrasive and prone to twisting words.

At the Conservative Party conference, a key stage in the contest, she began her speech, followed by the three other candidates, with the words: “Nice speeches, boys, but I think you all know I’m the one everyone was waiting for.”

Her rival Robert Jenrick42 years old, made a political trip. Elected as Cameroon’s Conservative in 2014, he was one of the rising stars of ministers who made way for Boris Johnson as prime minister and later a vocal supporter of Rishi Sunak.

However, he resigned as immigration minister in December 2023, saying Sunak’s government was breaking promises to curb immigration.

The MP for Newark, Nottinghamshire, claims he had a “working class” upbringing in Wolverhampton. He read history at Cambridge University and worked for Christie’s auctioneers before winning the by-election.

After a long ministerial career during which he was perceived as mild-mannered, he is said to have become “radicalized” during his time at the Home Office and focused his campaign on a promise to limit immigration and leave the European Convention on Human Rights “Stand up for our nation and our culture, our identity and our way of life.”

He has proposed more policies than his rival, but has faced criticism for some of his claims, including: that former British colonies owe a “debt of gratitude” to the Empire.

A poll of party members conducted by Conservative Home last week put Kemi Badenoch ahead by 55 points to Jenrick’s 31 points, with polling stations still open.

James Cleverly, shadow home secretary, seen as a more centrist candidate he withdrew from the race a month ago. One of his supporters, Conservative Party member and former leader of Scotland Ruth Davidson, did not foresee that neither Jenrick nor Badenoch would remain as leaders until the next general election.

She said Sky News podcast on electoral dysfunction: “Now I voted for Robert Jenrick, who I don’t think will win. “I find it hard to believe that the person who will be the next leader of the Tory party will lead us into the next election in five years and I find it hard to believe they will leave the leadership at a time of their choosing.”

Henry Hill, deputy editor of ConHome, said the contest, which Tory officials said would last almost three months, did not provide enough scrutiny because MPs’ voting rounds took so long.

“We know a lot less (about them) than I think we should,” he said. “The problem with this contest is that the party decided to go on for a really long time, but at the same time they limited the membership vote – to just the last two – to just three weeks, and the vote count dropped halfway through the process.

“We’ve had months with loads of candidates in the race, but these were also MP rounds and you’d think MPs would have had a chance to meet these people by now. In terms of the actual selection of members will be creating, there was no time to check it thoroughly.

He added: “I think the party remembers how Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak in 2022 needed weeks to get their act together and they wanted to avoid that. But that means the two campaigns weren’t really attacking each other, and that’s usually where you expose people’s weaknesses.”

After 14 years in power under five prime ministers since David Cameron in 2005, the party had not elected a leader who had gone into opposition – and it was a long road to the next general election.

Veteran former MP Graham Brady, who served as chairman of the backroom committee in 1922, told Sky News the position was more hopeful than after the 1997 landslide.

He said: “The biggest challenge for an opposition leader in these circumstances is simply being heard and noticed. I entered the House of Commons in 1997, during that huge landslide in Blair.

“We worked very, very hard in opposition in this parliament and at the next general election (in 2001) we gained a net gain of one seat.

“There is a huge difference now between today and 1997. The Blair government remained very popular and Tony Blair personally remained very popular across Parliament and beyond. And within 100 days or so, Keir Starmer was already far behind.

“So I think we have a great opportunity in front of us. I don’t think we have an insurmountable challenge, but it is a big challenge.”

Kate Fall, now Baroness Fall, worked with Lord Cameron in the opposition and later in Downing Street when he was prime minister in the coalition government. She said the next leader must keep the party “united and disciplined”.

“The first thing is to wonder why we lost. The second thing is what do we have to say? Then they have to be agile, react, but choose to fight, not fight for everything. They also need to get out and move,” she said.

Lord Cameron traveled around the country organizing question and answer sessions called Cameron Direct. “When you’re prime minister, you can’t do it as much as you want. But as the leader of the opposition you can go out and talk to people. We thought it was very trendy to have a podcast and all that.”

He says this week’s budget creates an “ideological divide” for the next leader to step into, but warns the next leader cannot risk alienating former Tories who have defected to Labor and the Lib Dems.

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The Opposition Leader will take part in weekly Prime Minister’s Questions alongside Sir Keir Starmer and respond to set events such as the Budget.

They will need to prepare the party’s campaign machinery for the English local elections in May 2025, the Scottish elections in 2026 and the next general election expected in 2029.