Why the main X-factor of victory may be on the sidelines

This afternoon the 1-7 Carolina Panthers will host the 2-6 New Orleans Saints in a disappointing matchup between two disappointing teams. New Orleans leads the series between these teams 32-28 and has won 12 of the last 16 meetings, including 47-10 on the opening weekend. That also includes a 15-14 record in Carolina, where the Saints have won five of their last seven trips.

Given the recent offensive struggles, a quick glance might suggest that the Saints will need to rely on their defense to snap a six-game losing streak. Against a Carolina player who ranks 29th or worse in points scored, total yards, pass production and third down percentage, which makes sense. This can also be a dangerous assumption.

New Orleans enters Week 9 with a pathetic defense. The Saints rank 32nd in yards allowed, 28th in passing and rushing, last in rushing average and have one of the fewest sacks in the league. Perhaps most inexcusable was that the defense had been relatively healthy until the last few weeks. Now the Saints will enter this game without three of their top four cornerbacks.

Yes, the Panthers have a terrible offense. It’s also a Saints defense that allowed 100 yards receiving to the likes of JuJu Smith-Schuster, nearly 200 yards from scrimmage to Sean Tucker, nearly 600 yards of offense against Tampa Bay, 225 yards on the ground to Denver and were fumbled. by the Kansas City team without its two best wingers and runners.

Believe it or not, New Orleans will have to beat Carolina with their offense. This is a team that started to get healthy last week with the return of Chris Olave, Taysom Hill and two offensive linemen. Quarterback Derek Carr also returns this week after missing three games due to injury. However, last week the Saints lost running backs Kendra Miller and Jamaal Williams, as well as WR Bub Means.

Still, with their point guard in the back, we could see a more open attack from New Orleans. It may come down to calling the play and designing a game plan. That would mean New Orleans’ offensive coaches could be just as important to a potential victory as the players on the field.

Saints fans were ready to elect first-year offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak as president after his unit exploded for 91 points and 811 yards in the first two games. Through six weeks, the offense averaged just 13.2 points and 291 yards per game.

Kubiak’s hands were tied to a certain point. In addition to Carr, the Saints also had to cope without outstanding all-round weapons, three starters in the forward line and two main reserves, no option to run back and both attackers on wingers for a week. However, Kubiak’s plans to play and call the play were also in doubt.

This was especially true last week against the Chargers. New Orleans made the right decision by giving rookie fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler a third straight start. It was also extremely obvious that the Saints did not have complete trust or faith in Rattler and his supporting cast. In that case, you have to wonder why they didn’t start Jake Haener or the more proven Taysom Hill behind center.

Having Carr back in the lineup should be a huge help. Kubiak will likely have more confidence deciding to make some plays that may have been buried in the playbooks with the inexperienced Rattler in the lineup.

Additionally, Carr’s experience will also be beneficial for audio recordings and hot readings when faced with lightning-fast or complicated relationships.

The Saints will still be without one of their best receivers in Rashid Shaheed and their best blocker in C Erik McCoy. Even with the return of guards Cesar Ruiz and Lucas Patrick, the offensive line performed terribly against the Chargers. This has to change dramatically if the Saints are going to get anywhere offensively.

Apart from Olave, no other winger in the squad played for their playmaker. The depth of the background is also a big problem. Kamara is banged up, but Miller and Williams can’t spell it. As a result, it’s likely that most of Hill’s snaps will come from outside the box.

Establishing Kamara will be the first task. Not only is he the best player on the pitch, but more importantly, Kubiak’s attack is based on running the ball and maintaining balance. A good running game not only slows down the opponent’s pass rush, but also prepares for action and potential big plays.

New Orleans also needs more from its tight ends. Juwan Johnson has been putting up better numbers in recent weeks, catching 21 passes for 168 yards in the last five games. He will need to be consistently productive for Carr, which will open up opportunities for other players on offense.

It would be extremely nice if a winger other than Olave played. This will likely be the first time we see newly acquired Marquez Valdes-Scantling in a Saints uniform. Mason Tipton, Cedrick Wilson and Equanimeous St. Brown combined for just 23 catches and 187 yards. It’s hard for a quarterback to be successful when receivers just aren’t getting open.

Good coaches maximize the best talents of their players. Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave and Taysom Hill will all play important roles in the game plan this afternoon. The challenge for Kubiak will be to find different ways to increase the effectiveness of all three against a Panther defense that will surely focus on three playmakers.

Movement, action play, using inventive formations and moving the best players around the pitch. These are things that New Orleans had a lot of success with early on, but have had little success with in recent weeks. Additionally, designing plays for other complementary elements may discourage Panthers or even open up space for expected weapons.

Klint Kubiak hasn’t played with a full deck in almost two months. Today he has a point guard, real threats in Kamara, Olave and Hill, and four of the five players starting on offense on opening day. This is still not an ideal situation. Nevertheless, Kubiak and Carrie are under pressure to play effectively offensively.

Given the way New Orleans’ defense has played for most of the year, and now with a weakened secondary, counting on this team is a huge risk. Perhaps thanks to Kubiak, Carr, Kamara and the still-deficient offense, the Saints’ longest winning streak in 20 years will end.