Here’s who’s winning in the Key Swing State

Top line

Vice President Kamala Harris is bidding to become the second Democratic presidential candidate to win North Carolina in more than 40 years, as most polls show she and former President Donald Trump are in a tight competition — with Trump having a slight edge, according to three new polls released this week, with Harris leading in two others.

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally in Greenville, North Carolina.

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Key facts

Harris leads the New York Times/Siena 48-46%. questionnaire will be eliminated on Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points), although Trump has a 49-47% lead in the standings Morning consultation poll also released on Sunday, while Harris’ likely CNN/SSRS voter count increased by 48-47% vote will fall on Thursday (margin of error 4.5 points).

Trump has a 49-47% lead over Harris among likely voters – with 4% choosing another candidate – in Fox News poll released Wednesday, though his lead narrows to one point (50%-49%) in a two-way contest, within a three-point margin of error.

Trump also leads among likely voters in North Carolina 50-48% in the Cooperative Elections Survey vote last week there was a large national survey, supported by universities and carried out by YouGov (2,308 respondents).

Trump leads likely voters by the same margin, 50% to 48%, both Marists vote and Emerson vote earlier this month and rose 49.6%-48.5% in a Bloomberg/Morning Consult report vote published on October 23, all within the study’s margin of error (3.1 points for Emerson, 3.6 for Marist and 4 points for Bloomberg).

Cook Political Report moved North Carolina from “lean Republican” to “throwaway” in late August, writing that the state “looks more competitive than ever” since Harris entered the race, while Cook’s latest poll released earlier this month shows that Harris and Trump is tied after Harris led here by one point in August.

A surprising fact

According to political analyst Nate Silver, if Harris wins the state, she has a nearly 90% chance of winning the election. Voter Power Indexwhich shows that Trump would have a more than 80% chance of winning the electoral college if he wins North Carolina.

Key background

North Carolina has voted for only one Democratic presidential candidate since 1980: Barack Obama in 2008. North Carolina’s shift to the left is largely attributed to an increase in the population of likely voters who tend to support Democrats – including college-educated people – especially with 5.6% increase from 2020 near the Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill “research triangle” area, according to Brookings Institution. The area is home to three major research universities – Duke University, the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and North Carolina University – which have also spawned related high-tech and life sciences industries, making it the tenth fastest-growing area in the nation, according to Brookings . The overall percentage of North Carolinians with a bachelor’s degree – a Democratic-leaning demographic – also increased by 1.4 million since 1990, the study found. test by the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

What to pay attention to

Could the scandals surrounding GOP gubernatorial candidate Lt. Mark Robinson hurt Trump’s chances in North Carolina? Trump endorsed Robinson on CNN report revealing a number of racist and derogatory comments he allegedly made on a porn site’s chat forum before entering politics, including calling himself a “black NAZI.” Polls conducted after the events of September 19 show that Democratic candidate Josh Stein increased his lead over Robinson to as much as 19 points in the recent election Emerson College Study. The CNN/SSRS poll released on September 27 also showed Robinson trailing Stein by 17 points, with Trump and Harris tied, suggesting that Robinson’s scandals have not affected Trump’s standing. Historically, the fall of candidates who did not receive votes rarely resulted in the fall of the affiliated party’s presidential candidate, CNN Notes.

A large number

16. This is how many electoral college votes North Carolina has after winning the 2020 census. The state has the eighth-most electoral votes in the country, just behind Georgia.

Against

Despite the increasingly Democratic leanings of the electorate, Republicans hold majorities in both houses of the Legislature, giving it the power to override a veto from Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper.