Will Trump or Harris lead?

Vice President Kamala Harris AND former president Donald Trump recently they are in a statistical tie Forbes/HarrisX national survey released late Monday evening.

Harris holds a narrow 49-48% lead over Trump among the 4,520 registered voters surveyed, with 3% preferring third-party candidates. When respondents were asked to make a choice Just between Harris and Trump, the vice president’s lead increased slightly to 49-47%, with 4% undecided.

Questionnaire was downloaded online between October 30 and November 1 and has a margin of error of ±1%.

According to the poll of respondents who said they had already cast their ballots, Harris had a 56-40% lead over Trump.

“Price increases/inflation” was one of the most important issues for respondents – 36% of respondents said that it was the most important issue. Immigration AND economy in second place were 32% and 31% of respondents respectively, putting them at the top of the list. Miscarriage was ranked fourth in terms of importance, and 16% of respondents said it was one of the most important issues.

“The race tomorrow will be decided on turnout, especially for Trump,” Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX, an analytics firm unrelated to Kamala Harris, told Forbes. “Trump has historically outperformed the polls in both 2016 and 2020 thanks to his ability to persuade low-propensity voters to show up and win over last-minute swing voters.”

What to remember when voting

The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results to be representative of the population as a whole.

When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” he says. Pew Research Center.

Pew too found that most pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, when Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.