Here’s who leads the 2024 Trump-Harris presidential race in Nevada

Top line

Vice President Kamala Harris maintains her lead over former President Donald Trump in three recent surveys of likely voters in the key swing state of Nevada, where declining support among Latino voters threatens to hurt Harris’ chances of winning the state next week.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally on September 29 in Las Vegas.

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Key facts

According to the New York Times/Siena, Harris has a three-point lead, 49-46%. vote likely voters in Nevada released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).

In the Emerson poll released Friday, Harris leads by one point, 48%-47% (margin of error 3.6), and is ahead in the poll 51%-47% questionnaire likely voters released this week by the Cooperative Election Study, a massive set of nationwide university-backed polls (933 respondents).

Meanwhile, Trump is up 48-47% on CNN/SSRS questionnaire published on Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points).

Harris also leads 48.8-48.3% – essentially a tie – among likely voters in the Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey questionnaire released on October 23 (margin of error 5 points), is ahead of Trump by 47-46% in AARP study likely voters were released on October 22 (margin of error 4), while a Wall Street Journal The October 11 poll (margin of error of 4) shows Trump with an unusually large five-point lead.

Trump has an average lead of 0.7 points in Nevada, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted data poll average.

Nevada – the smallest swing state with just six electoral votes – has been voting for Democratic presidential candidates since 2008, and in 2020, President Joe Biden defeated Trump there by 2.4 points.

A large number

56%. That’s the percentage of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016 compared to 49% who identified with the Democratic Party in 2024, according to a September survey NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.

Key background

Harris’s support among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Latinos and Latinos make up the majority about 30% population, and polls show it has lost support among key demographic groups. In 2020, Biden outstripped Latino voters in Nevada from Trump 61% to 35%, according to CNN. exit pollswhile Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to October’s USA Today/Suffolk University vote Hispanic voters. Fifty-three percent of Latinos ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latinos ages 35-49 in Nevada support Trump, according to a survey that found Harris has particular difficulty with Latinos in Nevada. state supports Trump and Trump. 39% support Harris. Immigration and inflation top the list of concerns for Latino voters in Nevada, according to a USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found that 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.

Tangent

Harris’ campaign made a last-minute outreach to Latinos in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada this month with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Latino Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, R-Ariz., who is leading against Trump ally Kari Lake, in the Arizona Senate. Her campaign says the tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other public places frequented by Latinos.

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